• Sales +5% vs. consensus, adj. EBITA +13% vs. consensus
• Consensus adj. EBITA estimates likely up by low single-digits
• Grows adj. EBITA y-o-y despite UK headwinds

Q2'25 outcome

The Q2 report was above consensus' expectations. Sales SEK 1,983m (4% vs ABG 1,914m and 5% vs cons 1,884m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 12% (5pp vs ABG 7% and 7pp vs cons 5%). Gross profit came in at SEK 629m (6% vs ABG 591m and 7% vs cons 590m). Humble's gross margin was roughly in line with expectations at 31.7% (-0.6pp q-o-q and flat y-o-y), partly due to a negative mix effect related to the late Easter sales of pick and mix confectionery. Adj. EBITA amounted to SEK 144m (+18% vs ABG 122m and +13% vs cons 128m), for a margin of 7.3% (+0.9pp vs ABG 6.4% and +0.5pp vs cons 6.8%), up 0.4pp from 7.7% Q2'24. While capacity-increasing investments weighed on opex, the solid growth and stable GM, coupled with IAC's of SEK 24m, led to a stronger-than-expected adj. EBITA.

Thoughts and outlook

Organic growth is strong at 12% considering a relatively tough comparable figure of 9%, although we keep in mind that Easter holidays occurred in Q2 as opposed to Q1 last year, which had a positive effect for Humble's sales and a negative effect on GM mix. The company highlights pent-up demand in confectionery and sports nutrition, as well as continued high demand for production capacity in the coming years. It also reiterated its focus on strengthened cash flow, and aims to lover its leverage to open up for future M&A. Moreover, last night Humble press released that it has increased its existing credit facilities with a loan amounting to SEK 300m, and that it has extended the maturity to 2027. This will reduce interest expenses. Our opinion on the business is unchanged but positive following the report.

We expect positive consensus estimate revisions

The share is down ~37% YTD and is trading at ~9x '25e EV/EBITA adj. on our unrevised estimates. Mechanically, adj. EBITA consensus estimates should be up b