Doro - Still not hit by increased component costs (ABG Sundal Collier)

2022-01-19 19:05
Q4 results due on 17 February at 9:00 CET
We expect sales of SEK 307m and EBIT of SEK 29m
Share trading at EV/EBIT 7x-6x in ‘22e-‘23e
Q4 expectations
Doro reports its Q4 results on 17 February at 9:00 CET. We expect sales of SEK 307m, down 11% organically y-o-y (FX effects -0.1% y-o-y), driven mainly by the exit from North America, which was not completed in Q4’20. We also expect that the lockdowns and restrictions due to the Omicron wave will affect Q4’21e and Q1’22e sales for Doro, as most of the sales are made through physical stores. Looking forward, we believe that an easing of these restrictions and new product launches will give a boost to sales. Moreover, we expect that the GM will stay strong in the quarter (35% Q4’21e) due to inventory build-up in the previous years. However, we do not believe that we can expect these strong margins going forward due to the price increases for components. Furthermore, due to the spin-off, we have cut our assumptions for personnel costs and slightly increased our central costs assumptions. Therefore, we expect EBIT of SEK 29m in Q4’21, which corresponds to an EBIT margin of 9.5%.

Slightly lower GM and raise EBIT estimates
We leave our organic sales intact, but adjust for FX, which results in sales of SEK 307m in Q4’21e (an increase of 1%). We slightly lower our GM by 5pp-10pp in Q2’22-Q4’22, as we expect increased component costs going forward. Moreover, we rise our EBIT margin by 15pp in Q4’21e due to new NRI and personnel assumptions.

Share is trading at EV/EBIT 7x-6x in ’22e-’23e
Doro’s share is down 10% since the first day of trading without Careium included and is currently trading at EV/EBIT of 7x-6x in ’22e-’23e. Our fair value range of SEK 24-38 corresponds to an EV/EBIT multiple of 6x-10x ‘22e-‘23e.

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