Svedbergs - The beginning of a new era (ABG Sundal Collier)

2022-01-19 18:05
Q4 report due on 4 February
Roper Rhodes to become more visible from Q1’22e
Share is trading at 12.6x-11.6x EV/EBITA in ‘22e-‘23e
The new Svedbergs Group takes form
On 1 December, 2021, Svedbergs announced the acquisition of UK-based Roper Rhodes, which is elaborated on further below in this report. The acquisition marks a milestone in Svedbergs’ history by close to doubling the group’s net sales as well as opening up a whole new market. While the multiple for Roper Rhodes is on the high side (10x EV/EBITA incl. earn-outs), we take a positive view on the deal and argue that it is justified by being a platform acquisition that should bring valuable additions to the group. Being consolidated on 1 December, the effects from the acquisition are to become more visible from Q1’22e. For Q4, we expect group sales to have grown 52.8% y-o-y to SEK 283m (8.7% organic, 0.5% FX, 43.6% M&A). We estimate the organic growth to be supported by continued strong end-markets into Q4, which Byggfakta’s building starts number for December indicates (+36% y-o-y). For EBITA we expect it to come in at SEK 34m, translating into a margin of 12%, an expansion of 1pp y-o-y.

Close to doubled net sales from ‘22e due to the acquisition
For FY’21e we raise our estimates by 8% and 6% on sales and EBITA, respectively, primarily due to the acquisition, but also some FX. Although we believe Svedbergs has continued showing resilience to raw material and freight cost inflation, we lower our margin assumption for ‘21e by some 0.3pp on the back of a somewhat higher opex base in Q4. Looking into ‘22e-‘23e, we lift our sales estimates by 82% and EBITA by 76%, as the acquisition of Roper Rhodes becomes visible. Taking the planned share issue into consideration, we estimate an EPS accretion of 34.5% in ‘22e.

Share is trading at EV/EBITA of 12.6x-11.6x in ‘22e-‘23e
On the back of the above, including the planned share issue and increased net debt, the share is currently trading at EV/EBITA of 12.6x-11.6x in ‘22e-‘23e

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