A strong US economy and, more recently, a higher oil price explain much of the US dollar's strength in 2023. The Fed's interest rate decision later today and September PMI figures from France, Germany, the UK and the US on Friday could move markets this week.

The USD fell surprisingly in September. On 8 September, the US Dollar Index broke a rare eight-week winning streak, its longest since 2014. The fact that the US economy is stronger than both Europe and Asia explains part of the divergence. But the US has also become a net exporter of oil. After 2020, the inverse relationship between the US dollar index and crude oil prices has gradually turned positive.

Today, Wednesday, 20 September, the Fed makes its interest rate announcement, followed by Powell's press conference.  The key macro news on Friday the 22nd will be the September PMI figures from Germany, France, the UK, and the US.

The MACD on the S&P500 weekly chart has generated a soft sell signal.

Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
 
Link to the Swedish-translated version

About Vontobel:

As a globally operating financial expert with Swiss roots, Vontobel specializes in wealth management, active asset management and investment solutions. Digital Investing bundles different investment solutions for private investors either directly or via ecosystems. Read more

About Carlsquare

Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Berlin, Copenhagen,
Frankfurt, Hamburg, London, Munich, Paris, San Francisco and Stockholm. Read more

Contact
MARKUS AUGUSTSSON
Head of Equity Research
markus.augustsson@carlsquare.com
+46 (0)76 235 03 20

Attachments

US dollar benefits from higher oil price