• Cons. expects FY'22 org growth of 3.8% vs. guidance of 4-6%
• China reopening likely not a major cons. trigger
• CMD expected in H1'23

Expecting slight upside to company-collected cons for Q4'22

Going into the Q4'22 report, we note that the company-collected consensus is looking for FY'22 organic growth of 3.8% (ABGSCe 4.0%), below the 4-6% guidance range provided by the company. One reason for the conservative consensus could be the speculation that the UK nursing strike might have had a negative impact in Q4, though the company confirmed during pre-close calls that no material impact had been seen. Looking at the EBITDA margin, however, we expect it to be slightly lower than cons (ABGSCe 18.3% vs. cons. at 19.6%) due to our slightly higher opex assumption.

FY'23 ests likely not moved much due to China reopening

With the full reopening of China in Jan'23, it could be argued that there will be a pick-up in business for Össur. However, from speaking with the company, we understand that FY'22 has not seen any clinics being closed, so the pick-up that could come, would be related to increased activity levels in China. However, it will likely not have a profound impact, so we would not expect this to be a material consensus changer.

Strategic update expected at CMD in H1'23

Overall, we expect Q4 to be slightly better on the top line vs. consensus, but we believe that estimates for FY'23 organic growth (ABSGCe 4.1% vs. cons. 5.3%) might be a bit too high, with some analysts perhaps expecting more tailwinds from China reopening and price increases.