Fastpartner
FastPartner - Q3 rent collection at normal levels (ABG Sundal Collier)
2020-07-03 16:32
75% of Q3 rent was collected by 1 July - at normal levels
CEPS growth of 7% and 12% in ‘20e and ‘21e
‘21e P/CE of 15x vs. sector average at 16x
Limited estimate revisions due to normal rent collectionQ2 earnings saw limited impact from COVID-19 and CEPS increased by 15% y-o-y in Q2, compared to ABGSCe at 13%. The Q3 rent collection amounted to 75% as of 1 July. Management comments that the collection figure is at normal levels at this time of the quarter. Moreover, management states that the Q2 rent collection amounts to 98% and they are hopeful of increasing this figure during the summer. Post-Q1 we lowered estimates by 2-3% derived from increased average interest rates from higher 3M Stibor and a 2% higher vacancy rate in ‘20e, to reflect increased tenant risk. We see no further need for further adjustments given the normal collection levels and 3M Stibor stabilisation, which is why we only make minor estimate revisions. In summary, we expect CEPS growth of 7% and 12% in ‘20e and ’21e, respectively.
EPRA NAVPS growth of 4% in ‘20e and 14% in ‘21e
Fastpartner value revisions amounted to -0.6% of the portfolio value, in Q2 (ABGSCe at 0.0%). The negative value revisions derive from a 10bp higher yield requirement from 4.6% to 4.7%. Reported EPRA NAVPS came in at SEK 82.2, but we adjust for D shares and preference shares (at quarterly end share prices). Adj. EPRA NAVPS amounts to 75.0 (ABGSCe at 78.3). As a result, EPRA NAVPS rose by ~28% y-o-y (adj. for DPS). For ‘20e and ’21e, we forecast 4% and 14% EPRA NAVPS growth (adj. for DPS) from CEPS contributions of ~6% p.a. and value revisions of -0.9% in 2020e and 3.5% in 2021e, which takes EPRA NAVPS to SEK 75 and SEK 84 in ‘20e and ‘21e.
‘20e P/EPRA NAVPS of 94% and ’21e of 83%
Fastpartner has historically traded at multiples above the sector average. For example, the five-year average on P/ EPRA NAVPS multiples stands at ~25% above the sector average. The share is trading at a ‘20e P/EPRA NAVPS (adj.) of 94% vs. the sector
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