BTS Group - Putting faith in an improved 2025
16 maj, 13:15
|
Soft Q1 but ramp-up expected in 2025Q1 missed expectations vs. both ABGSCe and FactSet consensus on growth and margins, but we consider the outlook comments and reiterated FY guidance to be encouraging for the rest of 2025. On a more detailed basis, the -9% Q1 organic development in Other markets was temporarily affected by some calendar effects and religious events in the Middle East, while BTS was able to close some large orders with expected delivery in the coming quarters. This should drive increased organic growth in the region ahead. We estimate 6% organic growth in Q2e vs. 1% in Q1 driven in particularly by improvement momentum in Other markets and easy comps in Europe (-23% in Q2'24). Regarding the USD 5m cost savings from increased productivity due to AI, we think this will be a sector-wide phenomenon and will therefore have a longer-term impact on pricing. Short-term, it relates to 2% of the 2024 cost base and is therefore supportive for the ~1pp margin impovement in 2026. Adj. EBITA reduced by 4-5%As a result of the weaker-than-expected Q1 on both sales and margins, we lower our sales estimates by 2% in 2025-27e and adj. EBITA estimates by 4-5%. M&A headroom and earnings to recoverBTS remains in a net cash position with limited earn-out payments in 2025, providing a solid financial headroom for more M&A in the near term. The market is fragmented, and the current muted growth momentum could cause increased selling interest among smaller competitors. On our updated estimates, we estimate 7% EBITA growth vs. the company's guidance of "higher than2024", and the share is trading at 11.4x 2025e EV/EBITA. |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
Ämnen i artikeln
BTS Group - Putting faith in an improved 2025
16 maj, 13:15
|
Soft Q1 but ramp-up expected in 2025Q1 missed expectations vs. both ABGSCe and FactSet consensus on growth and margins, but we consider the outlook comments and reiterated FY guidance to be encouraging for the rest of 2025. On a more detailed basis, the -9% Q1 organic development in Other markets was temporarily affected by some calendar effects and religious events in the Middle East, while BTS was able to close some large orders with expected delivery in the coming quarters. This should drive increased organic growth in the region ahead. We estimate 6% organic growth in Q2e vs. 1% in Q1 driven in particularly by improvement momentum in Other markets and easy comps in Europe (-23% in Q2'24). Regarding the USD 5m cost savings from increased productivity due to AI, we think this will be a sector-wide phenomenon and will therefore have a longer-term impact on pricing. Short-term, it relates to 2% of the 2024 cost base and is therefore supportive for the ~1pp margin impovement in 2026. Adj. EBITA reduced by 4-5%As a result of the weaker-than-expected Q1 on both sales and margins, we lower our sales estimates by 2% in 2025-27e and adj. EBITA estimates by 4-5%. M&A headroom and earnings to recoverBTS remains in a net cash position with limited earn-out payments in 2025, providing a solid financial headroom for more M&A in the near term. The market is fragmented, and the current muted growth momentum could cause increased selling interest among smaller competitors. On our updated estimates, we estimate 7% EBITA growth vs. the company's guidance of "higher than2024", and the share is trading at 11.4x 2025e EV/EBITA. |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
Ämnen i artikeln
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