Carlsquare: Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: An AI-resistant machine
18 februari, 12:11
The ASML investment case is based on a compelling combination of technological irreplaceability, sustained demand, and financial strength. ASML holds a genuine monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems that competitors cannot produce. The main risks are related to geopolitics, high valuation, and cyclicality.
ASML Holding NV is the world's only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. These machines are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductors, which power artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and smartphones. ASML's technology is widely regarded as non-replicable, affording the company an unassailable monopoly over the most critical step in advanced chip manufacturing. Given that China has been a significant end market, export restrictions targeting China could meaningfully reduce unit shipments and near-term revenue. With a P/E NTM of 41x and a P/E 2027E of 32x, the premium valuation leaves little room for error.
As of February 13, 74% of S&P companies had reported positive earnings surprises, with an average revenue growth of 9% in Q4 of 2025.
From a technical perspective, the main indices are in wait-and-see mode, with some showing a tendency to soften.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
Link to the Swedish-translated version
Read more
About Vontobel:
As a globally operating financial expert with Swiss roots, Vontobel specializes in wealth management, active asset management and investment solutions. Structured Solutions & Treasury bundles different investment solutions for private investors either directly or via ecosystems. Read more
About Carlsquare
Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Read more
Attachments
Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: An AI-resistant machine
Carlsquare: Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: An AI-resistant machine
18 februari, 12:11
The ASML investment case is based on a compelling combination of technological irreplaceability, sustained demand, and financial strength. ASML holds a genuine monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems that competitors cannot produce. The main risks are related to geopolitics, high valuation, and cyclicality.
ASML Holding NV is the world's only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. These machines are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductors, which power artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and smartphones. ASML's technology is widely regarded as non-replicable, affording the company an unassailable monopoly over the most critical step in advanced chip manufacturing. Given that China has been a significant end market, export restrictions targeting China could meaningfully reduce unit shipments and near-term revenue. With a P/E NTM of 41x and a P/E 2027E of 32x, the premium valuation leaves little room for error.
As of February 13, 74% of S&P companies had reported positive earnings surprises, with an average revenue growth of 9% in Q4 of 2025.
From a technical perspective, the main indices are in wait-and-see mode, with some showing a tendency to soften.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
Link to the Swedish-translated version
Read more
About Vontobel:
As a globally operating financial expert with Swiss roots, Vontobel specializes in wealth management, active asset management and investment solutions. Structured Solutions & Treasury bundles different investment solutions for private investors either directly or via ecosystems. Read more
About Carlsquare
Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Read more
Attachments
Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: An AI-resistant machine
Banker
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Ericsson
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Banker
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Ericsson
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