Alisa Bank issued a profit warning, with continued weaker demand driving lower volumes. 2025 PTP excl. NRI’s is expected to be negative, a notable decrease from the bank’s previous expectations.


Demand driven profit warning

Alisa Bank issued a profit warning on June 18th, as the continued weakness in the operating environment has affected the demand for the bank’s main products. Additionally, credit loss provisions have been higher during H1. The pre-tax profit excl. NRI’s is now expected to decline from 2024 levels (EUR -0.1m). In the previous guidance, the PTP excl. NRI’s was expected to reflect levels seen in H2/2025 (EUR 0.9m) and the drop suggested by the new guidance is as such significant, with our previous estimates at EUR 1.7m. The bank also launched a cost-savings program due to the weaker income, although OPEX has reportedly developed as expected.


H1 figures to be weak, looking to recover during H2

Our estimate revisions are essentially volume-based, with our estimate for 2025 credit loss provisions already higher in relative terms, along with interest rate related adjustments. We now expect a PTP excl. NRI’s of EUR -0.9m (prev. 1.7m). We expect H1 figures to be weak, and with some signs of demand recovery having been seen in Q2 expect barely positive profitability during H2. In terms of total income we still expect a slight y/y decline during H2, with still limited signs of a more notable pick up in demand. Our revisions for 2026-2027e are fairly small, with slight downward adjustments on total income and profitability. Although the market demand is driving short-term weakness, our views on the business potential of the bank’s products remain intact. We expect the bank to continue to focus on products and partnerships and review opportunities for inorganic growth.

REDUCE with a target price of EUR 0.16 (0.18)

In light of our estimate revisions and continued market weakness, we lower our target price to EUR 0.16 (0.18) and retain our REDUCE-rating. Valuation upside would in our view still require clear signs of profitability improvement above levels seen during H2/2024.

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