The price of live cattle (LC futures) has increased by 25% year-to-date, with the BBQ season and strained supply being two of the contributing factors. However, live cattle prices could start to taper off as we head into the colder autumn and winter months. The speech delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, 22 August, was well received by investors in the US stock and bond markets. Expectations of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting have increased significantly as a result.

Year-to-date, live cattle futures have increased by 25%, marking a 31% year-on-year rise. One of the main contributing factors is the contractionary stage of the cattle cycle, which typically peaks between April and July, with prices usually falling somewhat during the autumn. Combined with the threat of a New World screwworm outbreak in Mexico, stable demand is meeting fragile and declining supply.

Jeremy Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday 22 August was well received. The likelihood of a 25-basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting increased from 75% prior to the speech to between 85% and 89% afterwards. This week, attention will focus on Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday and US PCE inflation data on Friday, 29 August.

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Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: Cattle has been steady, will Autumn make it heavier?

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