• Expect continued M&A, mainly in DACH
• 5% adj. EBITA CAGR '24-'27e, M&A to support >10% growth
• 10-7x EBITA '25e-'27e, 10-16% FCF yields

A weather walkthrough

Today, we hosted Green Landscaping's CFO Marcus Holmström, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Mr Holmström joined the company in December 2024 and has held senior financial positions at AFRY and is also a former Ernst & Young auditor. In addition to emphasising the strength of Green Landscaping's business model and value-creating M&A, he highlighted the Group's development away from dependence on snow removal services since the '20s. GLG's high-margin snow removal contracts come into play when there is >5cm of snowfall in one day. On average this is 4 days per year, in the winter of '25 there were only 1.5 days, similar to '20 when there were 1.3 days, according to the company. In Q1'20 GLG's EBITA was SEK -19m, in Q1'25 it was SEK 40m. This is because the group is larger, but also because of the changes that have taken place in the Swedish snow-dependent companies: in Q1'25, both Norway and Sweden saw organic growth fall by -20%, but Sweden's margin was resilient at 6.5%, while Norway's was -1.8%. A mild winter and a weak Q1 is often offset by a strong Q4, as municipalities usually have more money to spend in Q4, as they want to spend the whole budget in order to get the same amount the following year.

Asset-light business while M&A takes place at 5-6x EBITA

Last week, GLG announced the first acquisition of the year as they continue the expansion in Germany with an acquisition in Brandenburg that should add ~2% to sales and likely ~2% to EBITA given how all recent acquisitions have been made at above-group margins and management has said that we should continue to expect companies being bought at >8% margins. Since 2018, we estimate that GLG has on aggregate acquired units with ~13% EBITA margins at ~6x EV/EBITA. Thus, considering the still-highly fragmented market, and low competition fo