Careium - Awaiting pick-up in H2
13 juli, 18:45
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Market headwinds worsened by accounting effectsCareium delivered soft sales in Q2, with organic growth of -9.3% compared to -2% in Q1'25. A soft Q2 was expected, but we underestimated the lack of financial lease contracts in Sweden. Most Swedish contracts are bundled and classified as financial leases, leading to upfront revenue recognition. However, as the Swedish market is awaiting major tenders, there are few of these contracts to bid on. The Nordics primarily drove the negative growth, down 16% y-o-y. Excluding the effect of financial leases, Q2 organic sales growth would have been -5.4% and growth in the Nordics would have been 1.4%. The GM showed continued strength, up 1.6pp to 43%, but the lower sales and opex growth of 5% led to an adj. EBITA of SEK 10m, down 56% y-o-y with a margin contraction of 5pp to 5%. Guidance of a stronger H2 remainsThe company commented that the lack of financial lease contracts would remain in H2, but it reiterated its guidance of a stronger H2'25. The tender activity could pick up in H2, as the ADDA 2025 framework has been pushed to May '26, and we may see a release in pent-up demand from customers who cannot push purchases as far as H1'26. Careium also noted that it did not qualify for the Swedish assisted living tender. While this is negative, potential sales from this were not accounted for in our estimates. We are encouraged by the first sale of fixed alarms in France, which is a large market with high potential. We cut sales and EBITA estimatesWe cut'25e-'26e sales by 3-4% on the back of the report and updated FX movements. We have revisited our opex estimates as we deem it likely that Careium will carry out cost initiatives to reach guidance. Consequently, we lower '25e-'26e adj. EBITA by 9-8%.On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 9x-7x'25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj. |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
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Careium - Awaiting pick-up in H2
13 juli, 18:45
|
Market headwinds worsened by accounting effectsCareium delivered soft sales in Q2, with organic growth of -9.3% compared to -2% in Q1'25. A soft Q2 was expected, but we underestimated the lack of financial lease contracts in Sweden. Most Swedish contracts are bundled and classified as financial leases, leading to upfront revenue recognition. However, as the Swedish market is awaiting major tenders, there are few of these contracts to bid on. The Nordics primarily drove the negative growth, down 16% y-o-y. Excluding the effect of financial leases, Q2 organic sales growth would have been -5.4% and growth in the Nordics would have been 1.4%. The GM showed continued strength, up 1.6pp to 43%, but the lower sales and opex growth of 5% led to an adj. EBITA of SEK 10m, down 56% y-o-y with a margin contraction of 5pp to 5%. Guidance of a stronger H2 remainsThe company commented that the lack of financial lease contracts would remain in H2, but it reiterated its guidance of a stronger H2'25. The tender activity could pick up in H2, as the ADDA 2025 framework has been pushed to May '26, and we may see a release in pent-up demand from customers who cannot push purchases as far as H1'26. Careium also noted that it did not qualify for the Swedish assisted living tender. While this is negative, potential sales from this were not accounted for in our estimates. We are encouraged by the first sale of fixed alarms in France, which is a large market with high potential. We cut sales and EBITA estimatesWe cut'25e-'26e sales by 3-4% on the back of the report and updated FX movements. We have revisited our opex estimates as we deem it likely that Careium will carry out cost initiatives to reach guidance. Consequently, we lower '25e-'26e adj. EBITA by 9-8%.On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 9x-7x'25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj. |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
Ämnen i artikeln
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Rapportperioden
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Inflationen
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