• Q2e: -4.5% organic sales growth, 9% adj. EBITA margin
• Expect continued caution in Sweden
• Trading at 9x-7x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA adj.

Expect continued softness as H1 comes to an end

We expect Q2 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 220m and SEK 20m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of -4.5% and a margin of 9%. Our estimated negative sales growth is primarily driven by expected soft growth in the Nordics, as we anticipate further caution in the Swedish market given the pending ADDA 2025 framework. For the UK & Ireland, we expect organic sales growth of 5%, as the Q2'24 comps are light. We expect opex to increase by 7% y-o-y, mainly driven by SD&M. On margins, we expect a higher GM y-o-y (44% vs. 42%), given the trajectory over the last three quarters, as well as a higher share of service sales (74% vs. 71% Q2'24). Consequently, our estimated adj. EBITA margin of 9% is 1.5pp lower y-o-y (10.4% Q2'24) due to operating leverage. Keep in mind that Careium has guided for a softer H1 and a stronger H2 for FY'25, and that we expect a recovery in the later quarters.

Minor negative estimate changes

We lower our '25e sales by 1.4%, driven by 1.7pp lower organic sales growth and 0.2pp higher FX growth. For '26e-'27e this leads to 1.5% lower sales. We leave our opex estimates largely unchanged, but increase our gross margin estimates, resulting in decreases of 0.5%, 0.1%, and 0.3% in adj. EBITA for '25e, '26e and '27e, respectively.

Share trading at 9x-7x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA adj.

On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at 9x-7x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA adj., where we highlight organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 7% and 9%, respectively, in '25e-'27e. Our peer group is currently trading at 10x-8x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA adj., with lower sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs (medians 3% and 8%, respectively) for the corresponding period.