• SEK 72m follow-up order (Terminals) from Swedish FMV
• Deliveries start in Q3
• Could add ~10% to '25e EBIT estimates

SEK 72m follow-up order from FMV

Ovzon has started Q3 in style, announcing a SEK 72m order for satellite terminals from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) today. This is a follow-up to the SEK 1.04bn breakthrough order with the same customer in May 2025, which was primarily related to SATCOM revenues (~80% of the contract), while the remaining ~20% was related to terminals. The terminals are also compatible with Ovzon-3; the May contract was for leased services, whereas FMV also has a separate Ovzon-3 contract.

Should drive positive estimate revisions

According to the press release, deliveries under the SEK 72m contract will begin in Q3. At first glance, we estimate that the order could increase cons' 2025e sales by ~5-10%, assuming the entire order is booked in H2'25e. Traditionally, we have assumed a gross margin of 30–35% for terminal sales. Assuming a similar metric for this order would imply an addition of 10–15% to 2025e EBIT.

SATCOM demand is high

Recent order momentum suggests that demand for Ovzon's services is high (and is currently accelerating). Furthermore, we emphasise that with only ~40% utilisation in Q2e (ABGSCe), a significant proportion of the company's satellite, Ovzon-3, remain unused, suggesting further potential for Ovzon-3-related orders. Near-term estimate visibility is comparably high, and the stock is trading at 35x-18x EV/EBIT on our unrevised 2025e-2026e estimates.