• We lift '26e EBIT by 4% on a higher subscription base
• 30% '25e-'28e EBIT CAGR driven by Senior subscriptions...
• ...leading EV/EBIT to drop from 15x in '25e to 5.2x in '28e

Q3e: Revenue NOK 533m, EBIT NOK 62m

We forecast Q3 revenue of NOK 533m and EBIT of NOK 62m. Xplora has released strong subscription updates in Kids & Youth (particularly in August), with subscriptions reaching 443k at the end of Q3, 4% above our estimate. Premium subscriptions also surpassed 100k in August. Factoring this into our estimates, we lift '25e-'26e service revenue by 1-2%, which in turn lifts '25e EBIT by 1% and '26e by 4%. Otherwise, our device and Senior estimates are unchanged.

Positive first data point on Doro conversion rate

With ~1.5m Doro devices sold annually (~1m phones), converting Doro customers to Senior subscriptions is the key value driver. Doro Connect was successfully launched on the Swedish web store on 17 June, and is planned to be followed by the rest of the Nordics in Q3, and the UK, France, and Germany in Q4. In the first few weeks following the launch on the Swedish web store (web is ~10% of sales), the conversion rate was 13% on SIM-relevant devices. Given that 1/3 of Doro volumes go through the telco channel, a 13% conversion in other channels (web + retail) would imply a 9% conversion rate for phones only and 6% across all Doro devices. While this is a very early data point, the 6% conversion rate in the first weeks is promising, given 5-10% should be sufficient to drive strong double-digit earnings growth. We assume an 8% conversion rate from '27e (gradual ramp-up from 1% in '25e). Combined with modest growth in Kids & Youth, this gives an 11% revenue CAGR and a 30% EBIT CAGR for '25e-'28e, resulting in EV/EBIT dropping from 15x in '25e to 5.2x in '28e.

Fair value range of NOK 42-69/share

On our '25e-'26e, Xplora is trading at 15-11x EV/EBIT and 15-12x EV/EBITDA-capex. This is 30-10% below peers on EV/EBITDA-capex. Our DCF scenarios point to NOK 42-69/share.