Prevas - Through the soft patch
23 april, 23:15
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Specialisation acts as a shield in a soft marketPrevas stands out from the wider consulting sector through its specialisation in complex product and production development across engineering, defence and energy, and we think these verticals offer a degree of insulation that should play out well in the longer term. For Q1, we estimate sales of SEK 440m, reflecting 2.3% y-o-y growth, with M&A contributing the majority, as organic growth is likely flat. This reflects soft demand, a neutral calendar effect, and continued weakness in Denmark (~9% of sales). We estimate adj. EBITA of SEK 37m, an 8.4% margin and ~5% y-o-y growth, supported by ongoing cost discipline. Patience on the recoveryWe leave our sales estimates unchanged. Our longer-term view on Prevas remains intact: we estimate sales growth to 5.2% in '26e (excluding unannounced M&A) and adj. EBITA margins reaching 9.2%, a gradual improvement trajectory as utilisation recovers and pricing pressure eases. Sweden will likely be stable, after six weaker quarters, and Finland will likely continue to be a growth driver, performing despite market softness, as evidenced by a Finnish peer's recent restructuring (although in its software unit). Denmark remains our main area of caution, as we expect the region to stay challenging near-term, though margin should gradually adjust as the company continues to right-size capacity. Below peer average on known challengesPrevas is trading at 9-5x EV/EBITA for '26e-'28e on our updated estimates, which is ~20% below the average of peers. Worth noting is that we expect the company to have higher sales growth and EBITA margins than peers in '26. As market conditions normalise, we should see utilisation improve and the operating leverage story should become clearer. |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
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Prevas - Through the soft patch
23 april, 23:15
|
Specialisation acts as a shield in a soft marketPrevas stands out from the wider consulting sector through its specialisation in complex product and production development across engineering, defence and energy, and we think these verticals offer a degree of insulation that should play out well in the longer term. For Q1, we estimate sales of SEK 440m, reflecting 2.3% y-o-y growth, with M&A contributing the majority, as organic growth is likely flat. This reflects soft demand, a neutral calendar effect, and continued weakness in Denmark (~9% of sales). We estimate adj. EBITA of SEK 37m, an 8.4% margin and ~5% y-o-y growth, supported by ongoing cost discipline. Patience on the recoveryWe leave our sales estimates unchanged. Our longer-term view on Prevas remains intact: we estimate sales growth to 5.2% in '26e (excluding unannounced M&A) and adj. EBITA margins reaching 9.2%, a gradual improvement trajectory as utilisation recovers and pricing pressure eases. Sweden will likely be stable, after six weaker quarters, and Finland will likely continue to be a growth driver, performing despite market softness, as evidenced by a Finnish peer's recent restructuring (although in its software unit). Denmark remains our main area of caution, as we expect the region to stay challenging near-term, though margin should gradually adjust as the company continues to right-size capacity. Below peer average on known challengesPrevas is trading at 9-5x EV/EBITA for '26e-'28e on our updated estimates, which is ~20% below the average of peers. Worth noting is that we expect the company to have higher sales growth and EBITA margins than peers in '26. As market conditions normalise, we should see utilisation improve and the operating leverage story should become clearer. |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
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