• -20% organic growth in Q2e due to last year's radio order
• Global military peer estimates remain flattish YTD
• Small changes to estimates, share at 43x 2025e EV/EBIT

Tough sales comp in Q2e

Invisio grew sales by 104% organically in Q2'24, driven by the third-party radio order delivery (44% excluding this). We therefore expect to see negative organic growth in Q2e of -20% (but +6% excluding the impact of last year's radio order). Compared to 9% organic growth in Q1'25 (on an easier comp), we view our estimate as a still-solid growth figure. In terms of order intake, Q1 disappointed, while Invisio announced a SEK 145m order from a European customer in Q2, with delivery in 2025. We estimate orders of SEK 375m, up 53% y-o-y and driven primarily by the announced order (-6% y-o-y excluding the order). On costs, we still expect Invisio to invest and ramp up costs in line with the longer-term growth plan. This means that on Q2e, we estimate adj. EBIT of SEK 85m, down 26% y-o-y. Compared to FactSet consensus, we find ourselves -5% on sales, -3% on EBIT and -9% on order intake.

Small changes to estimates

Despite positive news around European military budgets during 2025, we note that average sales estimates for large global military peers are more or less flat YTD for 2025 sales estimates. This shows that the long runway of growth is still valid, but with limited near-term impact within 2025. We leave our estimates relatively unchanged, mainly updating for the latest FX movements.

Long growth runway

We perceive Invisio as a credible, high-quality growth company, with the modernisation of soldiers as the main driving force. Competition will likely increase over the coming years, but Invisio both possesses a strong market position in its niche with long customer relationships (very important in the military market) and continued significant investments into R&D. On our new estimates, the share trades at 43x 2025e EV/EBIT.