• 3.5m EEs, sales -13% (-8% FX), EBIT margin 36.2% (+5.3% FX)
  • We cut '25-27e EBIT 6%/7%/1% on automotive market headwinds
  • Market recovery, FAW & MAN ramp, Tupy order support '26e-'27e

Q2 expectations

We forecast EEs to come in at 3.5m in Q2, as we anticipate a seasonal up-tick in line with historical patterns from Q1's 3.1m. However, this still represents a 13% y-o-y decline, driven by the weakened automotive market and the program shutdown in H2'24. With SCs at 53k (57k) and equipment revenue of 2.4m (1.3m), we expect this will result in sales of SEK 30.7m, down 13% y-o-y, -8% of which is FX-related (due to weaker USD/SEK). On the adj. EBIT margin, we have 36.2% (37.2%), with a positive FX effect of 5.3% (0.6%).

Estimate changes

With headwinds persisting in the broader automotive market, we delay the demand recovery in our estimates, cutting '25e, '26e and'27e sales by 3%, 4% and 1%, respectively. Due to SinterCast's operating leverage, this in turn impacts adj. EBIT negatively by 6%, 7%, and 1%, respectively.

Company valuation

While SinterCast's market is seeing some near-term weakness, our long-term view of the company remains unchanged. The strong equipment revenue in '24 and even stronger pipeline in '25e, as well as the MAN and FAW production ramps (up to 1m EEs), should support growth estimates in '26e-'27e, in conjunction with an underlying market recovery. During the quarter, SInterCast's largest customer Tupy also announced a high-volume order for commercial vehicles in North America, which together with the previously announced Brazilian order should add 0.3m EEs per year at mature volume, with production starting in late '26e. On our updated estimates, the share is currently trading at a P/E of 24x, in line with its historical median of 23x.

Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier

Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.

Ämnen i artikeln

Sintercast

Senast

117,50

1 dag %

−0,84%

1 dag

1 mån

1 år

Marknadsöversikt

1 DAG %

Senast

1 mån
Senaste aktieanalyserna på Placera
Kollage Analys Ny
Privatekonomi med Placeras expert
Karolina Placera

Karolina Palutko Macéus skriver om allt som har med privatekonomi att göra och hur du kan få mer pengar i plånboken.

Affärsvärlden
AFV

Är du kund hos Avanza? Just nu kan du få en unik rabatt på Affärsvärlden. Afv har 28 år i rad utsetts till Sveriges bästa affärsmagasin i en undersökning med börs-VD:ar, finanschefer, IR-chefer och aktieproffs.

Annons
Introduce

för börsens små- och medelstora företag.

Annons
Investtech

Här hittar du våra artiklar om teknisk analys i samarbete med Investtech.