Carlsquare: Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: The focus is on Nvidia this week
19 november, 2025
This week, we are focusing on the USD/JPY currency pair. Given that the prospect of a US interest rate cut has diminished, we believe that the USD could strengthen. Meanwhile, weaknesses in the Japanese economy are unlikely to increase the value of the yen. Separately, concerns over whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December have led to a decline in global stock markets. Investors are also awaiting Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday.
The longest shutdown of the US government has finally come to an end. This could help stabilize the US economy and strengthen the US dollar. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has fallen to around 40 per cent. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is under sustained downward pressure. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's support for prolonged loose fiscal and monetary policies suggests that Japan will continue to maintain accommodative conditions. Furthermore, the significant interest rate difference between Japan and the US has resulted in sustained yen weakness.
European and US stock markets ended last week on a weak note, with most of the leading indices in the red on Friday 14 November. Investors are becoming increasingly unconvinced that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates at its December meeting. Additionally, attention is turning to the high valuation of the AI-related stock sector in the US, which is having a significant impact on developments in stock markets around the world.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
Link to the Swedish-translated version
Read more
About Vontobel:
As a globally operating financial expert with Swiss roots, Vontobel specializes in wealth management, active asset management and investment solutions. Structured Solutions & Treasury bundles different investment solutions for private investors either directly or via ecosystems. Read more
About Carlsquare
Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Read more
Attachments
Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: The focus is on Nvidia this week
Carlsquare: Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: The focus is on Nvidia this week
19 november, 2025
This week, we are focusing on the USD/JPY currency pair. Given that the prospect of a US interest rate cut has diminished, we believe that the USD could strengthen. Meanwhile, weaknesses in the Japanese economy are unlikely to increase the value of the yen. Separately, concerns over whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December have led to a decline in global stock markets. Investors are also awaiting Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday.
The longest shutdown of the US government has finally come to an end. This could help stabilize the US economy and strengthen the US dollar. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has fallen to around 40 per cent. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is under sustained downward pressure. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's support for prolonged loose fiscal and monetary policies suggests that Japan will continue to maintain accommodative conditions. Furthermore, the significant interest rate difference between Japan and the US has resulted in sustained yen weakness.
European and US stock markets ended last week on a weak note, with most of the leading indices in the red on Friday 14 November. Investors are becoming increasingly unconvinced that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates at its December meeting. Additionally, attention is turning to the high valuation of the AI-related stock sector in the US, which is having a significant impact on developments in stock markets around the world.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
Link to the Swedish-translated version
Read more
About Vontobel:
As a globally operating financial expert with Swiss roots, Vontobel specializes in wealth management, active asset management and investment solutions. Structured Solutions & Treasury bundles different investment solutions for private investors either directly or via ecosystems. Read more
About Carlsquare
Carlsquare is a global research firm and financial advisor, focusing on M&A, Equity
Research and Growth Equity. Carlsquare has 150 employees with deep sector knowledge in all 11
GICS sectors. The senior equity research team has extensive experience about the stock
environment and several business sectors. The team produces company research reports,
independent valuations and trading notes. The group have offices in Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Read more
Attachments
Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: The focus is on Nvidia this week
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