WEEK AHEAD: Cooling US jobs growth, RBA rate hike and key UK elections
Idag, 13:30
(Alliance News) - US nonfarm payrolls, an interest rate call in Australia, and any fall-out from UK local elections will keep traders on their toes.
The week starts slowly with China, Japan and the UK on holiday.
The earnings season rumbles on, with focus moving to Europe from the US. HSBC, Shell and Diageo are the top UK names reporting. On the continent, Novo Nordisk is the highlight. In the US, AMD, Pfizer and Disney are on the schedule.
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Monday 4 May
11:30 AEST Australia private house approvals
Australia RBA meetings begins
China Labor Day. Financial markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed.
10:00 CEST eurozone manufacturing PMI
09:50 CEST France manufacturing PMI
09:55 CEST Germany manufacturing PMI
Ireland Bank Holiday. Financial markets closed.
09:45 CEST Italy manufacturing PMI
Japan Greenery Day. Financial markets closed.
11:00 SAST South Africa manufacturing PMI
09:15 CEST Spain manufacturing PMI
UK Early May Bank Holiday. Financial markets closed.
10:00 EDT US factory orders
Tuesday 5 May
09:00 AEST Australia composite PMI
14:30 AEST Australia interest rate decision
15:30 AEST Australia RBA press conference
08:30 EDT Canada trade balance
09:30 EDT Canada composite PMI
China Labor Day. Financial markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed.
08:45 CEST France budget balance
Japan Children's Day. Financial markets closed.
08:30 CEST Switzerland CPI
09:00 BST UK new car sales
08:30 EDT US trade balance
09:45 EDT US composite PMI
10:00 EDT US ISM services PMI
10:00 EDT US new home sales
Wednesday 6 May
10:00 EDT Canada Ivey PMI
09:45 CST China composite PMI
10:00 CEST eurozone composite PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone PPI
08:45 CEST France industrial production
09:50 CEST France composite PMI
09:55 CEST Germany composite PMI
12:00 CEST Germany new car registrations
01:01 IST Ireland services PMI
09:45 CEST Italy composite PMI
10:00 CEST Italy retail sales
Japan Constitution Day. Financial markets closed.
09:15 SAST South Africa S&P Global PMI
09:15 CEST Spain composite PMI
09:30 BST UK composite PMI
08:15 EDT US ADP unemployment
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
Thursday 7 May
11:30 AEST Australia trade balance
09:30 CEST eurozone construction PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone retail sales
08:45 CEST France trade balance
08:45 CEST France current account
09:30 CEST France construction PMI
08:00 CEST Germany factory orders
09:30 CEST Germany construction PMI
11:00 IST Ireland unemployment
09:30 CEST Italy construction PMI
08:50 JST Japan Bank of Japan meeting minutes
09:00 CEST Switzerland unemployment
09:30 BST UK construction PMI
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks
11:00 EDT US consumer inflation expectations
Friday 8 May
08:30 EDT Canada unemployment
08:30 EDT Canada employment change
08:30 EDT Canada average hourly wages
08:00 CEST Germany trade balance
08:00 CEST Germany industrial production
09:30 JST Japan composite PMI
09:00 CEST Spain industrial production
09:00 CEST Switzerland consumer confidence
07:00 BST UK halifax house price index
08:30 EDT US nonfarm payrolls
08:30 EDT US average weekly hours
10:00 EDT US Michigan consumer sentiment index
10:00 EDT US wholesale inventories
Top company events:
Monday 4 May
National Australia Bank Ltd - half year results
Palantir Technologies Inc - Q1 results
UniCredit Spa - Q1 results
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc - Q1 results
Tuesday 5 May
Advanced Micro Devices Inc - Q1 results
Amplifon Spa - Q1 results
AXA SA - Q1 results
Banco BPM Spa - Q1 results
Covestro AG - half year results
DuPont de Nemours Inc - Q1 results
Electronic Arts Inc - full year results
Ferrari NV - Q1 results
Fraport AG - Q1 results
Fresenius Medical Care AG - Q1 results
Geberit AG - Q1 results
Hennes & Mauritz AB H&M - AGM
HSBC Holdings PLC - Q1 results
Hugo Boss AG - Q1 results
International Workplace Group PLC - trading statement
Intesa Sanpaolo Spa - Q1 results
Italgas Spa - Q1 results
Leonardo Spa - Q1 results
Logitech International SA - full year results
Match Group Inc - Q1 results
PayPal Holdings Inc - Q1 results
Pfizer Inc - Q1 results
Westpac Banking Corp - half year results
Wednesday 6 May
Ahold Delhaize NV - Q1 results
Alcon Inc - Q1 results
Ameren Corp - Q1 results
Arm Holdings PLC - full year results
BMW AG - Q1 results
BPER Banca Spa - Q1 results
Campari NV - Q1 results
Cencora Inc - half year results
Continental AG - Q1 results
Corteva Inc - Q1 results
Costco Wholesale Corp - trading statement
Daimler Truck Holding AG - Q1 results
Deutsche Lufthansa AG - Q1 results
Diageo PLC - trading statement
DoorDash Inc - Q1 results
Evotec SE - Q1 results
Exelon Corp - Q1 results
FinecoBank Spa - Q1 results
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Global Payments Inc - Q1 results
Heidelberg Materials AG - trading statement
HelloFresh SE - Q1 results
Hensoldt AG - Q1 results
Infineon Technologies AG - half year results
Jeronimo Martins SA - Q1 results
Marriott International Inc - Q1 results
Next PLC - trading statement
Novo Nordisk AS - Q1 results
Rational AG - Q1 results
Redcare Pharmacy NV - Q1 results
Renk Group AG - Q1 results
Royal Philips NV - Q1 results
Smith & Nephew PLC - trading statement
Telecom Italia Spa - Q1 results
Tenaris SA - Q1 results
Trainline PLC - full year results
Uber Technologies Inc - Q1 results
Veolia Environnement SA - Q1 results
Vestas Wind Systems AS - Q1 results
Wacker Chemie AG - AGM
Wolters Kluwer NV - trading statement
Zalando SE - Q1 results
Thursday 7 May
Stora Enso AB - Q1 results
Rathbones Group PLC - Q1 results
Mediobanca Spa - Q1 results
Sun Life Financial Inc - Q1 results
Balfour Beatty PLC - trading statement
Swisscom AG - Q1 results
Coca-Cola HBC AG - trading statement
Harbour Energy PLC - trading statement
Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC - trading statement
Lanxess AG - Q1 results
Legrand SA - Q1 results
Henkel AG & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Rheinmetall AG - Q1 results
Siemens Healthineers AG - half year results
Genmab AS - Q1 results
Jungheinrich AG - Q1 results
GN Store Nord AS - Q1 results
JD Sports Fashion PLC - full year results
Fast Retailing Co Ltd Japa- April sales data
Swiss Re AG - Q1 results
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd - half year results
Banca Mediolanum Spa - Q1 results
Aker BP ASA - Q1 results
Vonovia SE - Q1 results
AP Moeller Maersk AS - Q1 results
Acciona SA - Q1 results
Knorr-Bremse AG - Q1 results
Solvay SA - Q1 results
Azimut Holding Spa - Q1 results
Bouygues SA - Q1 results
Pirelli & C Spa - Q1 results
Engie SA - Q1 results
Enel Spa - Q1 results
Nexi Spa - Q1 results
Iveco Group NV - Q1 results
Skanska Ab - Q1 results
Banca Monte Paschi Siena Spa - Q1 results
Essity AB - capital markets day
Citigroup Inc - annual investors day
MercadoLibre Inc - Q1 results
Morgan Sindall Group PLC - trading statement
SUSS MicroTec SE - Q1 results
Airbnb Inc - Q1 results
Wynn Resorts Ltd - Q1 results
Cloudflare Inc - Q1 results
Friday 8 May
Krones AG - Q1 results
Airtel Africa PLC - full year results
Commerzbank AG - Q1 results
Bechtle AG - Q1 results
Clariant AG - Q1 results
Japan Tobacco Inc - Q1 results
Evonik Industries AG - Q1 results
Fresenius Medical Care AG - Q1 financial report
QBE Insurance Group Ltd - Q1 results
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - monthly sales April
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA - Q1 results
Macquarie Group Ltd - full year results
Nintendo Co Ltd - full year results
NTT Corp - full year results
Sony Group Corp - full year results
Mitsubishi Motors Corp - full year results
Nikon Corp - full year results
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp - full year results
Fidelity National Information Services Inc - Q1 results
Rightmove PLC - trading statement
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
TUESDAY: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as it grapples with inflationary pressures caused by soaring oil prices. Citi analyst Josh Williamson says the RBA's inflation "headache" is about to "become a migraine" as he forecasts a quarter point rise in the benchmark rate to 4.35% from 4.10%, in line with FXStreet-cited market consensus. Williamson sees inflation pressures broadening on the back of elevated oil prices, with housing related inflation set to accelerate over the coming quarters, along with food and services. As a result, he sees headline inflation around 5.5% by the middle of the year, with trimmed-mean inflation at 3.8%. Therefore, the RBA will likely upwardly revise its inflation forecast in the May Statement on Monetary Policy, and hike by 25bps across May and June for a terminal rate of 4.6%, the Citi analyst says. "The RBA faces a difficult decision, but the persistence of these price shocks necessitates further tightening to manage inflationary expectations," he adds. Bank of America also expects a quarter point hike but says "it's a close call". "Inflation is above target and set to rise further, while the labour market remains too tight. However, the decision will ultimately depend on how the board weighs upside inflation risks against downside growth risks, and we expect this debate will lead to a split decision," BofA says. The broker thinks the case to "front-load" hikes is stronger, as "holding amid rising inflation could feed into expectations, pushing inflation higher".
TUESDAY: RBC Capital Markets thinks "underappreciated competitive pressures" could drive some weakness for three key products at Pfizer. As a result, RBC sits 4% below consensus for first quarter revenue at USD13.35 billion, with consensus at USD13.89 billion. For heart treatment Vyndamax, RBC notes gross pricing has eroded for six consecutive quarters as competitive pressures build. Covid drug Paxlovid faces ongoing demand challenges and a dent from a weaker Covid season, while pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar faces increasing competition from Merck's Capvaxive, the bank points out. This could overshadow anticipated beats for blood thinner Eliquis and cancer drug Xtandi, RBC says. RBC forecasts first quarter EPS of USD0.71 for Pfizer, versus USD0.73 consensus. JPMorgan also flags likely upside at Eliquis, while it suggests a recent USD2.2 billion EU court ruling on Covid drug Comirnaty could lead to a "fairly sizeable tailwind on sales in 2026".
TUESDAY: UBS says Intel's recent commentary around central processing unit demand and outlook bodes well for Advanced Micro Devices results. However, much of that optimism may be reflected in the share price which has shot up 69% in the last month alone. UBS also thinks the Austin, Texas-based chipmaker may have fared better in terms of supply, where Intel continued to flag constraints. "So we think this sets up very well for AMD," UBS says. UBS estimates AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year with units up 40% to 45% and pricing up in the 20% range. In February, AMD forecast first quarter revenue of USD9.8 billion plus or minus USD300 million, up 32% year-on-year, at the mid-point. UBS models first quarter revenue and EPS of USD10.06 billion and USD1.38, above consensus of USD9.84 billion and USD1.27. UBS expects second-quarter guidance for revenue of USD11.18 billion and EPS of USD1.66, ahead of USD10.48 billion and USD1.42 consensus.
TUESDAY: Focus at HSBC's first-quarter results will likely be on the impact of the Middle East crisis and any news on the timing of the resumption of share buybacks. AJ Bell points out that, as "one of the most exposed UK banks to the Middle East, with a 31% stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, investors will be alert to commentary on how the war has impacted wealthy investors in the region." In addition, AJB looks for news on how the integration of Hang Seng Bank is going after HSBC assumed full ownership during the quarter. When announcing that deal last October, HSBC said it it would pause or suspend share buybacks for three quarters. JPMorgan expects the bank to resume buybacks in the second quarter of 2026, consistent with guidance. Company-compiled market consensus looks for net operating income of USD18.49 billion for the first quarter, including net interest income of USD11.28 billion. Underlying revenue is forecast of USD18.68 billion, with pretax profit of USD9.59 billion and EPS of USD0.41. Citi expects a strong quarter for wealth management but doesn't expect any updates on targets until the May 19 to 21 investor trip.
WEDNESDAY: Next's first quarter trading update may give an early indication as to whether consumers are steering clear of the UK high street amid surging energy costs. Richard Hunter, at interactive investor says the clothing and homewares retailer is one of the "best run and most respected stocks within the FTSE 100". But Hunter notes the inflationary impact of higher energy prices "threatens to heighten input costs as well as crimp consumer demand". In March, Next forecast full price sales growth of 4.5% for the financial year ending January 2027, including UK growth of 2.2% and international growth of 14%. It forecast annual pretax profit of GBP1.21 billion, broadly flat year-on-year. Peel Hunt notes sales to the Middle East represent around 6% of turnover for Next. "There will clearly be some disruption here, but the more critical impact will be on the supply chain and wider consumer," Peel Hunt says. The broker does not expect Next to be immune from the weaker consumer demand but sees forecasts holding for now. "Comments around consumer are likely to remain cautious, with the risk of disposable income being eroded by rising energy costs, fuel prices, travel costs, and inflationary pressures ahead of peak," Peel Hunt adds.
WEDNESDAY: Derren Nathan, head of equity analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown says Novo Nordisk's first-quarter results will provide a "critical lens" through which to assess whether "bold" strategic actions have managed to revive volume growth. "Price cuts, higher-dose approvals and distribution partnerships for its weight-loss jab, Wegovy, have been key initiatives so far this year," he noted, while the launch of Wegovy in pill form has also been a "particular success". Investors will be keen to see if that momentum continued following the launch of a rival oral medicine by Eli Lilly, HL's Nathan thinks. Company-compiled consensus forecasts adjusted group sales of DKK69.07 billion, with Diabetes sales of DKK45.63 billion, Obesity sales of DKK19.12 billion and Biopharmaceuticals sales of DKK4.54 billion. Within Diabetes, GLP-1s sales are expected to be DKK31.64 billion with Ozempic sales of DKK26.11 billion. Within Obesity, Wegovy sales of DKK17.40 billion are projected. Adjusted operating profit is forecast of DKK28.74 billion. HL's Nathan believes achieving its "modest" full-year guidance, which currently predicts a revenue drop of between 5% to 13% this year, will likely be a key driver of sentiment. Clinical progress is another point of focus, he adds. UBS sees potential for the bottom end of the sales guidance range to be raised, noting the first quarter has seen a strong pick up at the lower price point for Wegovy.
WEDNESDAY: JPMorgan thinks Diageo will report "better-than-feared" third-quarter sales although a decline in organic growth is forecast. London-based Diageo operates in over 180 countries with a portfolio of over 200 brands, including top sellers like Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka, Tanqueray gin, and Guinness stout. In February, the FTSE 100 listing cut its dividend and gave muted sales guidance, forecasting a full-year organic net sales decline of 2% to 3%, compared to "flat to slightly down" before. Diageo has brought in former Tesco boss Dave Lewis, as chief executive, in a bid to revive its fortunes. Lewis said he is looking to have an updated strategy proposal for the board in calendar second quarter before sharing with the market mid-calendar third quarter. Lewis told a staff meeting on Tuesday this will include a strategic push into the ready-to-drink cocktails market, the Financial Times reported. Ahead of the financial third quarter update, JPM adjusted its sales expectations for Diageo. JPM now looks for organic sales to fall 2.2%, raised from a 4.0% decline forecast previously, with volumes down 3.1%. JPM says a "persistently" weak environment in North America, has been partially offset by benefits from Easter phasing in Europe and Chinese New Year in Asia Pacific, continued strong momentum in Africa, and advanced sell-in ahead of the FIFA World Cup in North America this summer. Jefferies forecasts a 2.7% LFL organic sales decline, which it says is below 2.3% consensus. Jefferies says consensus forecasts a 10% LFL drop in North America, 3.9% growth in Europe, and flat sales in Asia Pacific. More optimistically, UBS predicts a 1.9% drop in first quarter LFL organic sales and sees most upside risk in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America. Ahead of the update, Diageo received a boost as US President Donald Trump said he is removing tariffs on Scottish whisky. Citi analyst Simon Hales said the move is 1% to 2% accretive to Diageo's consensus EPS on an annualised basis.
THURSDAY: Keep an eye on the pound and UK gilts after local election results out late Thursday and into Friday. With the ruling Labour Party expected to perform poorly, there is speculation of a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Bloomberg reported that council seat losses of around the 2,000 mark could lead to further pressure on Starmer, while the Times reported that some Cabinet ministers have set the bar at 1,500 seats. Deutsche Bank says if the May election results are sufficiently bad for the Labour Party as to see a leadership challenge over the summer, it would expect risk premia to remain in place for UK fixed income and the pound. "Whether they widen further will depend on the policy platform of any potential challengers, and actual measures taken thereafter," Deutsche says. The yield on 10-years gilts have risen sharply in the wake of the Middle East crisis, topping 5.00%, after trading closer to 4.20% before. ING thinks borrowing costs could initially climb if the political situation worsens, but says a leadership change need not materially alter the fiscal or Bank of England outlook. ING thinks the scale of Labour's defeat will be key and what drives it. If the situation were to escalate or a leadership contest were to be triggered, the 10-year yield could easily rise another 10 basis points to 20bps, ING says, "in line with the nervousness seen in markets prior to the budget announcement last year."
THURSDAY: A reported boardroom split, and likely weak trading, will be topics of discussion when JD Sports Fashion reports full-year results. The sports retailer recently announced the departure of Chair Andrew Higginson, which the Financial Times said followed a failed attempt by him to oust Chief Executive Regis Schultz. JD Sports denied this, and said Schultz has the "continued" support of the board. For financial 2026, Citi analyst Monique Pollard expects pretax profit of GBP849 million, in line with Visible Alpha consensus, with fourth quarter like-for-like sales down 1.8%. Pollard also expects an update on first trading. Here, the Citi analyst forecasts group LFL sales to decline by 2.1% on year versus VA consensus of down 1.6%. She sees UK LFL sales down 3.7%, Europe down 2.5%, Asia Pacific up 0.5%, and North America down 1.0%, with VA consensus at -3.3%, -1.3%, +0.8% and -1.0%, respectively. "Our forecasts reflect the assumption that the consumer backdrop in UK/Europe remains challenging, and the market backdrop remains highly promotional across all regions," she says. For financial 2027 guidance, Pollard expects pretax profit of GBP832 million.
THURSDAY: Intercontinental Hotels Group is expected to report a strong quarter despite concerns that the Middle East crisis may have hit consumer confidence and reduce travel. IHG owns the Holiday Inn chain and is one of the largest hotel operators in the world with significant exposure to the US. Despite the concerns, analyst expect a strong performance across all regions, bar the Middle East. Bank of America forecasts 3.9% like-for-like revenue per available room growth for the first quarter on a year before and 2.4% for the financial year. BofA points out IHG has a relatively small exposure to the Middle East with just 5% of rooms and current-year openings there. Jefferies also forecasts RevPAR growth of 3.9% for the quarter and looks for an acceleration in the US and confirmation of improving momentum in Greater China. JPMorgan models 3.1% quarterly growth.
THURSDAY: Disney's second earnings provide an opportunity for its new chief executive, Josh D'Amaro, to outline his plans. The Burbank, California-based media and entertainment group announced the promotion of D'Amaro, who was chair of Disney Experiences, in February, succeeding Bob Iger. AJ Bell points out that as the first 'non-content' leader at Disney in decades D'Amaro faces extra scrutiny on the creative side of the business. But AJ Bell thinks the quarter should get a helping hand from a strong release slate including The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mandalorian & Grogu, and Toy Story 5. JPMorgan notes that while investors received a glimpse of D'Amaro's vision from prepared remarks delivered at the annual shareholder meeting, this will be his first earnings call. "We expect Q&A will test the new management team on a range of issues, with particular attention paid to strategic or structural matters, however it would be surprising to see anything substantive out of the gate. Separately, any commentary around Parks will be in focus given the recent macro volatility, in addition to the NFL which appears intent on reopening rights agreements," JPM says. For the quarter, JPM forecasts adjusted EPS of USD1.49 for Disney, versus USD1.46 a year prior and USD1.50 Bloomberg consensus. The broker forecasts revenue of USD25.05 billion versus USD23.62 billion a year ago and USD24.84 billion consensus.
FRIDAY: Non-farm payrolls bring down the curtain on a week of US labour market figures, with job vacancy data, ADP private payrolls figures alongside the weekly jobless claims number. Bloomberg consensus looks for 63,000 job additions in April, slowing markedly from 178,000 in March, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969 during the week of April 25, which analysts say points to layoffs remaining very low, suggesting the labour market is not weakening markedly. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has characterised the US jobs market as being in an unusual and uncomfortable balance since people who do not have jobs will have a hard time finding employment due to the slow hiring. April's Beige Book pointed to stable labour demand, with low turnover, minimal layoffs, and hiring mostly for replacement.
FRIDAY: British Airways owner IAG reports first-quarter trading amid turmoil in the industry due to soaring energy costs and likely waning consumer demand for travel. The airline is likely to face questions about fuel supply and costs, trimming of less profitable routes, pricing, and current trading. Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, thinks first quarter numbers should hold up "relatively well", with underlying operating profits forecast to jump around 45% higher to GBP288 million in the traditionally quiet quarter. "Much more important will be the outlook for the rest of the year, and a cautious tone is expected," he says. But he believes IAG is in a better position than most airlines to "stomach the recent challenges thanks to its strong balance sheet and higher margins". He says investors are keen to hear whether there's been any changes to IAG's capacity plans this year, noting the firm has already signposted a 3% cut in 2026.
FRIDAY: The recent BP numbers, with the oil major doubling its first-quarter profit, has led to heightened expectations for the week's results from peer Shell, according to Richard Hunter at interactive investor. "Investors will be looking for updates on trading, margins, and any production issues resulting from the Middle East conflict," he says, while there may also be some change to Shell's more recently conservative capital expenditure, having guided for a range of between USD20 billion and USD22 billion for this year. Earnings are expected to jump reflecting the surge in oil prices. Market consensus compiled by Vara predicts adjusted earnings of USD6.36 billion for the quarter compared to USD5.56 billion a year prior and nearly double USD3.26 billion in the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is forecast of USD16.73 billion, cash flow from operating activities of USD2.58 billion and a USD12.48 decrease in working capital. Excluding working capital, cash flow from operating activities is forecast at USD14.81 billion. Shell also may give more details on the USD22 billion acquisition of Canadian company ARC Resources which it is estimated will add 370,000 barrels of oil per day to its portfolio, as well as generating double-digit returns and boosting free cash flow from next year. A USD3.5 billion quarterly buyback should also be on the cards.
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Ämnen i artikeln
WEEK AHEAD: Cooling US jobs growth, RBA rate hike and key UK elections
Idag, 13:30
(Alliance News) - US nonfarm payrolls, an interest rate call in Australia, and any fall-out from UK local elections will keep traders on their toes.
The week starts slowly with China, Japan and the UK on holiday.
The earnings season rumbles on, with focus moving to Europe from the US. HSBC, Shell and Diageo are the top UK names reporting. On the continent, Novo Nordisk is the highlight. In the US, AMD, Pfizer and Disney are on the schedule.
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Monday 4 May
11:30 AEST Australia private house approvals
Australia RBA meetings begins
China Labor Day. Financial markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed.
10:00 CEST eurozone manufacturing PMI
09:50 CEST France manufacturing PMI
09:55 CEST Germany manufacturing PMI
Ireland Bank Holiday. Financial markets closed.
09:45 CEST Italy manufacturing PMI
Japan Greenery Day. Financial markets closed.
11:00 SAST South Africa manufacturing PMI
09:15 CEST Spain manufacturing PMI
UK Early May Bank Holiday. Financial markets closed.
10:00 EDT US factory orders
Tuesday 5 May
09:00 AEST Australia composite PMI
14:30 AEST Australia interest rate decision
15:30 AEST Australia RBA press conference
08:30 EDT Canada trade balance
09:30 EDT Canada composite PMI
China Labor Day. Financial markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed.
08:45 CEST France budget balance
Japan Children's Day. Financial markets closed.
08:30 CEST Switzerland CPI
09:00 BST UK new car sales
08:30 EDT US trade balance
09:45 EDT US composite PMI
10:00 EDT US ISM services PMI
10:00 EDT US new home sales
Wednesday 6 May
10:00 EDT Canada Ivey PMI
09:45 CST China composite PMI
10:00 CEST eurozone composite PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone PPI
08:45 CEST France industrial production
09:50 CEST France composite PMI
09:55 CEST Germany composite PMI
12:00 CEST Germany new car registrations
01:01 IST Ireland services PMI
09:45 CEST Italy composite PMI
10:00 CEST Italy retail sales
Japan Constitution Day. Financial markets closed.
09:15 SAST South Africa S&P Global PMI
09:15 CEST Spain composite PMI
09:30 BST UK composite PMI
08:15 EDT US ADP unemployment
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
Thursday 7 May
11:30 AEST Australia trade balance
09:30 CEST eurozone construction PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone retail sales
08:45 CEST France trade balance
08:45 CEST France current account
09:30 CEST France construction PMI
08:00 CEST Germany factory orders
09:30 CEST Germany construction PMI
11:00 IST Ireland unemployment
09:30 CEST Italy construction PMI
08:50 JST Japan Bank of Japan meeting minutes
09:00 CEST Switzerland unemployment
09:30 BST UK construction PMI
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks
11:00 EDT US consumer inflation expectations
Friday 8 May
08:30 EDT Canada unemployment
08:30 EDT Canada employment change
08:30 EDT Canada average hourly wages
08:00 CEST Germany trade balance
08:00 CEST Germany industrial production
09:30 JST Japan composite PMI
09:00 CEST Spain industrial production
09:00 CEST Switzerland consumer confidence
07:00 BST UK halifax house price index
08:30 EDT US nonfarm payrolls
08:30 EDT US average weekly hours
10:00 EDT US Michigan consumer sentiment index
10:00 EDT US wholesale inventories
Top company events:
Monday 4 May
National Australia Bank Ltd - half year results
Palantir Technologies Inc - Q1 results
UniCredit Spa - Q1 results
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc - Q1 results
Tuesday 5 May
Advanced Micro Devices Inc - Q1 results
Amplifon Spa - Q1 results
AXA SA - Q1 results
Banco BPM Spa - Q1 results
Covestro AG - half year results
DuPont de Nemours Inc - Q1 results
Electronic Arts Inc - full year results
Ferrari NV - Q1 results
Fraport AG - Q1 results
Fresenius Medical Care AG - Q1 results
Geberit AG - Q1 results
Hennes & Mauritz AB H&M - AGM
HSBC Holdings PLC - Q1 results
Hugo Boss AG - Q1 results
International Workplace Group PLC - trading statement
Intesa Sanpaolo Spa - Q1 results
Italgas Spa - Q1 results
Leonardo Spa - Q1 results
Logitech International SA - full year results
Match Group Inc - Q1 results
PayPal Holdings Inc - Q1 results
Pfizer Inc - Q1 results
Westpac Banking Corp - half year results
Wednesday 6 May
Ahold Delhaize NV - Q1 results
Alcon Inc - Q1 results
Ameren Corp - Q1 results
Arm Holdings PLC - full year results
BMW AG - Q1 results
BPER Banca Spa - Q1 results
Campari NV - Q1 results
Cencora Inc - half year results
Continental AG - Q1 results
Corteva Inc - Q1 results
Costco Wholesale Corp - trading statement
Daimler Truck Holding AG - Q1 results
Deutsche Lufthansa AG - Q1 results
Diageo PLC - trading statement
DoorDash Inc - Q1 results
Evotec SE - Q1 results
Exelon Corp - Q1 results
FinecoBank Spa - Q1 results
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Global Payments Inc - Q1 results
Heidelberg Materials AG - trading statement
HelloFresh SE - Q1 results
Hensoldt AG - Q1 results
Infineon Technologies AG - half year results
Jeronimo Martins SA - Q1 results
Marriott International Inc - Q1 results
Next PLC - trading statement
Novo Nordisk AS - Q1 results
Rational AG - Q1 results
Redcare Pharmacy NV - Q1 results
Renk Group AG - Q1 results
Royal Philips NV - Q1 results
Smith & Nephew PLC - trading statement
Telecom Italia Spa - Q1 results
Tenaris SA - Q1 results
Trainline PLC - full year results
Uber Technologies Inc - Q1 results
Veolia Environnement SA - Q1 results
Vestas Wind Systems AS - Q1 results
Wacker Chemie AG - AGM
Wolters Kluwer NV - trading statement
Zalando SE - Q1 results
Thursday 7 May
Stora Enso AB - Q1 results
Rathbones Group PLC - Q1 results
Mediobanca Spa - Q1 results
Sun Life Financial Inc - Q1 results
Balfour Beatty PLC - trading statement
Swisscom AG - Q1 results
Coca-Cola HBC AG - trading statement
Harbour Energy PLC - trading statement
Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC - trading statement
Lanxess AG - Q1 results
Legrand SA - Q1 results
Henkel AG & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Rheinmetall AG - Q1 results
Siemens Healthineers AG - half year results
Genmab AS - Q1 results
Jungheinrich AG - Q1 results
GN Store Nord AS - Q1 results
JD Sports Fashion PLC - full year results
Fast Retailing Co Ltd Japa- April sales data
Swiss Re AG - Q1 results
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd - half year results
Banca Mediolanum Spa - Q1 results
Aker BP ASA - Q1 results
Vonovia SE - Q1 results
AP Moeller Maersk AS - Q1 results
Acciona SA - Q1 results
Knorr-Bremse AG - Q1 results
Solvay SA - Q1 results
Azimut Holding Spa - Q1 results
Bouygues SA - Q1 results
Pirelli & C Spa - Q1 results
Engie SA - Q1 results
Enel Spa - Q1 results
Nexi Spa - Q1 results
Iveco Group NV - Q1 results
Skanska Ab - Q1 results
Banca Monte Paschi Siena Spa - Q1 results
Essity AB - capital markets day
Citigroup Inc - annual investors day
MercadoLibre Inc - Q1 results
Morgan Sindall Group PLC - trading statement
SUSS MicroTec SE - Q1 results
Airbnb Inc - Q1 results
Wynn Resorts Ltd - Q1 results
Cloudflare Inc - Q1 results
Friday 8 May
Krones AG - Q1 results
Airtel Africa PLC - full year results
Commerzbank AG - Q1 results
Bechtle AG - Q1 results
Clariant AG - Q1 results
Japan Tobacco Inc - Q1 results
Evonik Industries AG - Q1 results
Fresenius Medical Care AG - Q1 financial report
QBE Insurance Group Ltd - Q1 results
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - monthly sales April
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA - Q1 results
Macquarie Group Ltd - full year results
Nintendo Co Ltd - full year results
NTT Corp - full year results
Sony Group Corp - full year results
Mitsubishi Motors Corp - full year results
Nikon Corp - full year results
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp - full year results
Fidelity National Information Services Inc - Q1 results
Rightmove PLC - trading statement
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
TUESDAY: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as it grapples with inflationary pressures caused by soaring oil prices. Citi analyst Josh Williamson says the RBA's inflation "headache" is about to "become a migraine" as he forecasts a quarter point rise in the benchmark rate to 4.35% from 4.10%, in line with FXStreet-cited market consensus. Williamson sees inflation pressures broadening on the back of elevated oil prices, with housing related inflation set to accelerate over the coming quarters, along with food and services. As a result, he sees headline inflation around 5.5% by the middle of the year, with trimmed-mean inflation at 3.8%. Therefore, the RBA will likely upwardly revise its inflation forecast in the May Statement on Monetary Policy, and hike by 25bps across May and June for a terminal rate of 4.6%, the Citi analyst says. "The RBA faces a difficult decision, but the persistence of these price shocks necessitates further tightening to manage inflationary expectations," he adds. Bank of America also expects a quarter point hike but says "it's a close call". "Inflation is above target and set to rise further, while the labour market remains too tight. However, the decision will ultimately depend on how the board weighs upside inflation risks against downside growth risks, and we expect this debate will lead to a split decision," BofA says. The broker thinks the case to "front-load" hikes is stronger, as "holding amid rising inflation could feed into expectations, pushing inflation higher".
TUESDAY: RBC Capital Markets thinks "underappreciated competitive pressures" could drive some weakness for three key products at Pfizer. As a result, RBC sits 4% below consensus for first quarter revenue at USD13.35 billion, with consensus at USD13.89 billion. For heart treatment Vyndamax, RBC notes gross pricing has eroded for six consecutive quarters as competitive pressures build. Covid drug Paxlovid faces ongoing demand challenges and a dent from a weaker Covid season, while pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar faces increasing competition from Merck's Capvaxive, the bank points out. This could overshadow anticipated beats for blood thinner Eliquis and cancer drug Xtandi, RBC says. RBC forecasts first quarter EPS of USD0.71 for Pfizer, versus USD0.73 consensus. JPMorgan also flags likely upside at Eliquis, while it suggests a recent USD2.2 billion EU court ruling on Covid drug Comirnaty could lead to a "fairly sizeable tailwind on sales in 2026".
TUESDAY: UBS says Intel's recent commentary around central processing unit demand and outlook bodes well for Advanced Micro Devices results. However, much of that optimism may be reflected in the share price which has shot up 69% in the last month alone. UBS also thinks the Austin, Texas-based chipmaker may have fared better in terms of supply, where Intel continued to flag constraints. "So we think this sets up very well for AMD," UBS says. UBS estimates AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year with units up 40% to 45% and pricing up in the 20% range. In February, AMD forecast first quarter revenue of USD9.8 billion plus or minus USD300 million, up 32% year-on-year, at the mid-point. UBS models first quarter revenue and EPS of USD10.06 billion and USD1.38, above consensus of USD9.84 billion and USD1.27. UBS expects second-quarter guidance for revenue of USD11.18 billion and EPS of USD1.66, ahead of USD10.48 billion and USD1.42 consensus.
TUESDAY: Focus at HSBC's first-quarter results will likely be on the impact of the Middle East crisis and any news on the timing of the resumption of share buybacks. AJ Bell points out that, as "one of the most exposed UK banks to the Middle East, with a 31% stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, investors will be alert to commentary on how the war has impacted wealthy investors in the region." In addition, AJB looks for news on how the integration of Hang Seng Bank is going after HSBC assumed full ownership during the quarter. When announcing that deal last October, HSBC said it it would pause or suspend share buybacks for three quarters. JPMorgan expects the bank to resume buybacks in the second quarter of 2026, consistent with guidance. Company-compiled market consensus looks for net operating income of USD18.49 billion for the first quarter, including net interest income of USD11.28 billion. Underlying revenue is forecast of USD18.68 billion, with pretax profit of USD9.59 billion and EPS of USD0.41. Citi expects a strong quarter for wealth management but doesn't expect any updates on targets until the May 19 to 21 investor trip.
WEDNESDAY: Next's first quarter trading update may give an early indication as to whether consumers are steering clear of the UK high street amid surging energy costs. Richard Hunter, at interactive investor says the clothing and homewares retailer is one of the "best run and most respected stocks within the FTSE 100". But Hunter notes the inflationary impact of higher energy prices "threatens to heighten input costs as well as crimp consumer demand". In March, Next forecast full price sales growth of 4.5% for the financial year ending January 2027, including UK growth of 2.2% and international growth of 14%. It forecast annual pretax profit of GBP1.21 billion, broadly flat year-on-year. Peel Hunt notes sales to the Middle East represent around 6% of turnover for Next. "There will clearly be some disruption here, but the more critical impact will be on the supply chain and wider consumer," Peel Hunt says. The broker does not expect Next to be immune from the weaker consumer demand but sees forecasts holding for now. "Comments around consumer are likely to remain cautious, with the risk of disposable income being eroded by rising energy costs, fuel prices, travel costs, and inflationary pressures ahead of peak," Peel Hunt adds.
WEDNESDAY: Derren Nathan, head of equity analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown says Novo Nordisk's first-quarter results will provide a "critical lens" through which to assess whether "bold" strategic actions have managed to revive volume growth. "Price cuts, higher-dose approvals and distribution partnerships for its weight-loss jab, Wegovy, have been key initiatives so far this year," he noted, while the launch of Wegovy in pill form has also been a "particular success". Investors will be keen to see if that momentum continued following the launch of a rival oral medicine by Eli Lilly, HL's Nathan thinks. Company-compiled consensus forecasts adjusted group sales of DKK69.07 billion, with Diabetes sales of DKK45.63 billion, Obesity sales of DKK19.12 billion and Biopharmaceuticals sales of DKK4.54 billion. Within Diabetes, GLP-1s sales are expected to be DKK31.64 billion with Ozempic sales of DKK26.11 billion. Within Obesity, Wegovy sales of DKK17.40 billion are projected. Adjusted operating profit is forecast of DKK28.74 billion. HL's Nathan believes achieving its "modest" full-year guidance, which currently predicts a revenue drop of between 5% to 13% this year, will likely be a key driver of sentiment. Clinical progress is another point of focus, he adds. UBS sees potential for the bottom end of the sales guidance range to be raised, noting the first quarter has seen a strong pick up at the lower price point for Wegovy.
WEDNESDAY: JPMorgan thinks Diageo will report "better-than-feared" third-quarter sales although a decline in organic growth is forecast. London-based Diageo operates in over 180 countries with a portfolio of over 200 brands, including top sellers like Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka, Tanqueray gin, and Guinness stout. In February, the FTSE 100 listing cut its dividend and gave muted sales guidance, forecasting a full-year organic net sales decline of 2% to 3%, compared to "flat to slightly down" before. Diageo has brought in former Tesco boss Dave Lewis, as chief executive, in a bid to revive its fortunes. Lewis said he is looking to have an updated strategy proposal for the board in calendar second quarter before sharing with the market mid-calendar third quarter. Lewis told a staff meeting on Tuesday this will include a strategic push into the ready-to-drink cocktails market, the Financial Times reported. Ahead of the financial third quarter update, JPM adjusted its sales expectations for Diageo. JPM now looks for organic sales to fall 2.2%, raised from a 4.0% decline forecast previously, with volumes down 3.1%. JPM says a "persistently" weak environment in North America, has been partially offset by benefits from Easter phasing in Europe and Chinese New Year in Asia Pacific, continued strong momentum in Africa, and advanced sell-in ahead of the FIFA World Cup in North America this summer. Jefferies forecasts a 2.7% LFL organic sales decline, which it says is below 2.3% consensus. Jefferies says consensus forecasts a 10% LFL drop in North America, 3.9% growth in Europe, and flat sales in Asia Pacific. More optimistically, UBS predicts a 1.9% drop in first quarter LFL organic sales and sees most upside risk in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America. Ahead of the update, Diageo received a boost as US President Donald Trump said he is removing tariffs on Scottish whisky. Citi analyst Simon Hales said the move is 1% to 2% accretive to Diageo's consensus EPS on an annualised basis.
THURSDAY: Keep an eye on the pound and UK gilts after local election results out late Thursday and into Friday. With the ruling Labour Party expected to perform poorly, there is speculation of a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Bloomberg reported that council seat losses of around the 2,000 mark could lead to further pressure on Starmer, while the Times reported that some Cabinet ministers have set the bar at 1,500 seats. Deutsche Bank says if the May election results are sufficiently bad for the Labour Party as to see a leadership challenge over the summer, it would expect risk premia to remain in place for UK fixed income and the pound. "Whether they widen further will depend on the policy platform of any potential challengers, and actual measures taken thereafter," Deutsche says. The yield on 10-years gilts have risen sharply in the wake of the Middle East crisis, topping 5.00%, after trading closer to 4.20% before. ING thinks borrowing costs could initially climb if the political situation worsens, but says a leadership change need not materially alter the fiscal or Bank of England outlook. ING thinks the scale of Labour's defeat will be key and what drives it. If the situation were to escalate or a leadership contest were to be triggered, the 10-year yield could easily rise another 10 basis points to 20bps, ING says, "in line with the nervousness seen in markets prior to the budget announcement last year."
THURSDAY: A reported boardroom split, and likely weak trading, will be topics of discussion when JD Sports Fashion reports full-year results. The sports retailer recently announced the departure of Chair Andrew Higginson, which the Financial Times said followed a failed attempt by him to oust Chief Executive Regis Schultz. JD Sports denied this, and said Schultz has the "continued" support of the board. For financial 2026, Citi analyst Monique Pollard expects pretax profit of GBP849 million, in line with Visible Alpha consensus, with fourth quarter like-for-like sales down 1.8%. Pollard also expects an update on first trading. Here, the Citi analyst forecasts group LFL sales to decline by 2.1% on year versus VA consensus of down 1.6%. She sees UK LFL sales down 3.7%, Europe down 2.5%, Asia Pacific up 0.5%, and North America down 1.0%, with VA consensus at -3.3%, -1.3%, +0.8% and -1.0%, respectively. "Our forecasts reflect the assumption that the consumer backdrop in UK/Europe remains challenging, and the market backdrop remains highly promotional across all regions," she says. For financial 2027 guidance, Pollard expects pretax profit of GBP832 million.
THURSDAY: Intercontinental Hotels Group is expected to report a strong quarter despite concerns that the Middle East crisis may have hit consumer confidence and reduce travel. IHG owns the Holiday Inn chain and is one of the largest hotel operators in the world with significant exposure to the US. Despite the concerns, analyst expect a strong performance across all regions, bar the Middle East. Bank of America forecasts 3.9% like-for-like revenue per available room growth for the first quarter on a year before and 2.4% for the financial year. BofA points out IHG has a relatively small exposure to the Middle East with just 5% of rooms and current-year openings there. Jefferies also forecasts RevPAR growth of 3.9% for the quarter and looks for an acceleration in the US and confirmation of improving momentum in Greater China. JPMorgan models 3.1% quarterly growth.
THURSDAY: Disney's second earnings provide an opportunity for its new chief executive, Josh D'Amaro, to outline his plans. The Burbank, California-based media and entertainment group announced the promotion of D'Amaro, who was chair of Disney Experiences, in February, succeeding Bob Iger. AJ Bell points out that as the first 'non-content' leader at Disney in decades D'Amaro faces extra scrutiny on the creative side of the business. But AJ Bell thinks the quarter should get a helping hand from a strong release slate including The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mandalorian & Grogu, and Toy Story 5. JPMorgan notes that while investors received a glimpse of D'Amaro's vision from prepared remarks delivered at the annual shareholder meeting, this will be his first earnings call. "We expect Q&A will test the new management team on a range of issues, with particular attention paid to strategic or structural matters, however it would be surprising to see anything substantive out of the gate. Separately, any commentary around Parks will be in focus given the recent macro volatility, in addition to the NFL which appears intent on reopening rights agreements," JPM says. For the quarter, JPM forecasts adjusted EPS of USD1.49 for Disney, versus USD1.46 a year prior and USD1.50 Bloomberg consensus. The broker forecasts revenue of USD25.05 billion versus USD23.62 billion a year ago and USD24.84 billion consensus.
FRIDAY: Non-farm payrolls bring down the curtain on a week of US labour market figures, with job vacancy data, ADP private payrolls figures alongside the weekly jobless claims number. Bloomberg consensus looks for 63,000 job additions in April, slowing markedly from 178,000 in March, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969 during the week of April 25, which analysts say points to layoffs remaining very low, suggesting the labour market is not weakening markedly. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has characterised the US jobs market as being in an unusual and uncomfortable balance since people who do not have jobs will have a hard time finding employment due to the slow hiring. April's Beige Book pointed to stable labour demand, with low turnover, minimal layoffs, and hiring mostly for replacement.
FRIDAY: British Airways owner IAG reports first-quarter trading amid turmoil in the industry due to soaring energy costs and likely waning consumer demand for travel. The airline is likely to face questions about fuel supply and costs, trimming of less profitable routes, pricing, and current trading. Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, thinks first quarter numbers should hold up "relatively well", with underlying operating profits forecast to jump around 45% higher to GBP288 million in the traditionally quiet quarter. "Much more important will be the outlook for the rest of the year, and a cautious tone is expected," he says. But he believes IAG is in a better position than most airlines to "stomach the recent challenges thanks to its strong balance sheet and higher margins". He says investors are keen to hear whether there's been any changes to IAG's capacity plans this year, noting the firm has already signposted a 3% cut in 2026.
FRIDAY: The recent BP numbers, with the oil major doubling its first-quarter profit, has led to heightened expectations for the week's results from peer Shell, according to Richard Hunter at interactive investor. "Investors will be looking for updates on trading, margins, and any production issues resulting from the Middle East conflict," he says, while there may also be some change to Shell's more recently conservative capital expenditure, having guided for a range of between USD20 billion and USD22 billion for this year. Earnings are expected to jump reflecting the surge in oil prices. Market consensus compiled by Vara predicts adjusted earnings of USD6.36 billion for the quarter compared to USD5.56 billion a year prior and nearly double USD3.26 billion in the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is forecast of USD16.73 billion, cash flow from operating activities of USD2.58 billion and a USD12.48 decrease in working capital. Excluding working capital, cash flow from operating activities is forecast at USD14.81 billion. Shell also may give more details on the USD22 billion acquisition of Canadian company ARC Resources which it is estimated will add 370,000 barrels of oil per day to its portfolio, as well as generating double-digit returns and boosting free cash flow from next year. A USD3.5 billion quarterly buyback should also be on the cards.
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Ämnen i artikeln
Analys
Rapporter
Analys
Rapporter
Marknadsöversikt
1 DAG %
Senast
1 mån
