WEEK AHEAD: Fed, ECB and BoE holds, tech earnings bonanza and UK banks
24 april, 14:07
(Alliance News) - Prepare for a hectic week in financial markets, as a flurry of big tech results and central bank meetings hit the wires.
Rate calls in the US, Europe, UK and Japan lead the way, with inflation prints in Australia and Europe other notable releases.
Wednesday alone sees four of the 'Magnificent 7' report, with Apple posting a day later. In the UK, leading banks, pharmaceuticals and oil companies publish results, with a similarly stacked line-up in Europe.
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Monday 27 April
08:00 CEST Germany consumer confidence
Japan Bank of Japan meeting begins
South Africa Freedom Day. Financial markets closed.
10:30 EDT US Dallas Fed manufacturing index
Tuesday 28 April
11:00 CEST Italy PPI
12:00 JST Japan interest rate decision
12:00 JST Japan BoJ quarterly outlook report
09:00 CEST Spain unemployment
09:00 CEST Spain retail sales
08:00 BST UK Grocery Market Share – Worldpanel
09:00 EDT US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index
09:00 EDT US house price index
10:00 EDT US Conference Board consumer confidence
10:00 EDT US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
14:00 EDT US FOMC meetings begins
Wednesday 29 April
11:30 AEST Australia CPI
09:45 EDT Canada interest rate decision
09:45 EDT Canada BoC monetary policy report
10:30 EDT Canada BoC press conference
10:00 CEST eurozone money supply
11:00 CEST eurozone economic sentiment index
11:00 CEST eurozone industrial sentiment index
14:00 CEST Germany CPI
11:00 IST Ireland harmonised CPI
11:00 IST Ireland GDP
10:00 CEST Italy consumer confidence
14:00 JST Japan construction orders
Japan Showa Day. Financial markets closed.
09:00 CEST Spain CPI
12:00 CEST Spain business confidence
10:00 CEST Switzerland economic sentiment index
08:30 EDT US building permits
08:30 EDT US building permits
08:30 EDT US wholesale inventories
08:30 EDT US durable goods orders
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
14:00 EDT US interest rate decision
14:30 EDT US Fed press conference
Thursday 30 April
08:30 EDT Canada GDP
09:30 CST China NBS manufacturing PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone GDP
11:00 CEST eurozone CPI
11:00 CEST eurozone unemployment
14:15 CEST eurozone interest rate decision
14:45 CEST eurozone ECB press conference
07:30 CEST France GDP
08:45 CEST France CPI
08:45 CEST France PPI
08:00 CEST Germany retail sales
09:55 CEST Germany unemployment
10:00 CEST Germany GDP
10:00 CEST Italy GDP
10:30 CEST Italy unemployment
11:00 CEST Italy CPI
08:50 JST Japan retail sales
08:50 JST Japan industrial production
11:30 SAST South Africa PPI
14:00 SAST South Africa trade balance
09:00 CEST Spain GDP
10:00 CEST Spain current account
12:00 BST UK interest rate decision
12:00 BST UK BoE monetary policy report
12:00 BST UK MPC meeting minutes
08:30 EDT US personal consumption expenditures
08:30 EDT US employment cost index
08:30 EDT US GDP
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
08:30 EDT US quarterly personal consumption expenditures
09:45 EDT US Chicago PMI
10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks
Friday 1 May
09:00 AEST Australia manufacturing PMI
11:30 AEST Australia PPI
09:30 EDT Canada manufacturing PMI
China Labor Day. Financial markets in Shanghai,Shenzhen and Hong Kong closed.
France Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
Germany Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
01:01 IST Ireland AIB manufacturing PMI
Ireland Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
Italy Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
09:30 JST Japan manufacturing PMI
14:00 JST Japan consumer confidence
South Africa Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
Spain Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
08:30 CEST Switzerland retail sales
Switzerland Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
09:30 BST UK mortgage approvals
09:30 BST UK manufacturing PMI
09:45 EDT US manufacturing PMI
10:00 EDT US ISM manufacturing PMI
Top company events:
Monday 27 April
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc -Q1 results
Cadence Design Systems Inc - Q1 results
Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd - full year results
Deutsche Boerse AG - Q1 results
GE Aerospace - dividend payment date
Henkel AG & Co KGaA - AGM
Nordex SE - Q1 results
Verizon Communications Inc - Q1 results
Tuesday 28 April
Air Liquide SA - Q1 results
Airbus SE - Q1 results
Anglo American PLC - trading statement
Barclays PLC - Q1 results
Booking Holdings Inc - Q1 results
BP PLC - Q1 results
Coca-Cola Co - Q1 results
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC - trading statement
Enphase Energy Inc - Q1 results
General Motors Co - Q1 results
Mondelez International Inc - Q1 results
Novartis AG - Q1 results
NXP Semiconductors NV - Q1 results
Ocado Group PLC - AGM
Oriental Land Co Ltd - full year results
Sherwin-Williams Co - Q1 results
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd - full year results
Starbucks Corp - half year results
Teleperformance SE - Q1 results
T-Mobile US - Q1 results
Travis Perkins PLC - trading statement
Visa Inc - half year results
Wells Fargo & Co - AGM
Worldline SA - trading statement
Wednesday 29 April
A2a Spa - AGM
AbbVie Inc - Q1 results
Aberdeen Group PLC - AGM
Adidas AG - Q1 results
Admiral Group PLC - AGM
Align Technology Inc - Q1 results
Alliance Witan PLC - AGM
Alphabet Inc - Q1 results
Amazon.com Inc - Q1 results
Amphenol Corp - Q1 results
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC - Q1 results
AstraZeneca PLC - Q1 results
Automatic Data Processing Inc - Q3 results
Banco Santander SA - Q1 results
Biogen Inc - Q1 results
Computacenter PLC - Q1 results
Deutsche Bank AG - Q1 results
DWS Group GmbH & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Elementis PLC - trading statement
Engie SA - GM
Entain PLC - AGM
F&C Investment Trust PLC - AGM
FinecoBank Spa - AGM
Fuchs SE - Q1 results
Gap Inc - dividend payment date
Garmin Ltd - Q1 results
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc - Q1 results
GEA Group AG - AGM
GSK PLC - Q1 results
Haleon PLC - trading statement
Haleon PLC - AGM
Hera Spa - AGM
Hochtief AG - AGM
JD Wetherspoon PLC - trading statement
LLoyds Banking Group PLC - Q1 results
Melrose Industries PLC - AGM
Mercedes-Benz Group AG - Q1 results
Meta Platforms Inc - Q1 results
Michelin - Q1 results
Microsoft Corp - Q3 results
Munich Re AG - AGM
Nexi Spa - AGM
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc - Q1 results
O'Reilly Automotive Inc - Q1 results
Porsche AG - Q1 results
Primary Health Properties PLC - AGM
Prysmian Spa - Q1 results
Qualcomm Inc - half year results
Rational AG - AGM
Recordati Spa - AGM
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc - Q1 results
SBA Communications Corp - Q1 results
Scout24 SE - Q1 results
Siltronic AG - Q1 results
Snam Spa - AGM
St James's Place PLC - Q1 results
Symrise AG - Q1 results
TotalEnergies SE - Q1 results
Traton SE - Q1 results
UBS Group AG - Q1 results
Verisk Analytics Inc - Q1 results
Wacker Chemie AG - Q1 results
Woodside Energy Group Ltd - Q1 results
Thursday 30 April
AIA Group Ltd - Q1 results
Aixtron SE - Q1 results
Apple Inc - half year results
ArcelorMittal SA - Q1 results
Atlassian Corp - Q3 results
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA - Q1 results
BASF SE - Q1 results
Beazley PLC - trading statement
BNP Paribas SA - Q1 results
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co - Q1 results
Capgemini SE - trading statement
Caterpillar Inc - Q1 results
Credit Agricole SA - Q1 results
DBS Group Holdings Ltd - Q1 results
Delivery Hero SE - Q1 results
Deutsche Post AG - Q1 results
DexCom Inc - Q1 results
Draegerwerk AG & CO KGAA - Q1 results
Drax Group PLC - trading statement
Eli Lilly & Co - Q1 results
Endeavour Mining PLC - Q1 results
Glencore PLC - Q1 results
Hella GmbH & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Hoya Corp - full year results
Iberdrola SA - Q1 results
Illumina Inc - Q1 results
Inchcape PLC - trading statement
ING Group NV - Q1 results
Intercontinental Exchange Inc - Q1 results
Kingspan Group PLC - trading statement
Kion Group AG - Q1 results
Lancashire Holdings Ltd - trading statement
MasterCard Inc - Q1 results
Merck & Co Inc - Q1 results
MONY Group PLC - trading statement
MTU Aero Engines AG - Q1 results
Murata Manufacturing Co Ltd - full year results
Nemetschek SE - Q1 results
OSB Group PLC - trading statement
Persimmon PLC - trading statement
Prudential PLC - Q1 results
PUMA SE - Q1 results
Samsung Electronics Co - Q1 results
Schneider Electric SE - Q1 results
Sirius XM Holdings Inc - Q1 results
Smurfit WestRock PLC - Q1 results
Societe Generale SA - Q1 results
Standard Chartered PLC - Q1 results
Stellantis NV - Q1 results
Tokyo Electron Ltd - full year results
Unilever PLC - trading statement
Volkswagen AG - Q1 results
Whitbread PLC - full year results
Woolworths Group Ltd - Q3 results
Friday 1 May
Aon PLC - Q1 results
Cboe Global Markets Inc - Q1 results
Chevron Corp - Q1 results
Coles Group Ltd - Q3 results
Colgate-Palmolive Co - Q1 results
Exxon Mobil Corp - Q1 results
Estee Lauder Cos Inc - Q3 results
Linde PLC - Q1 results
Mitsubishi Corp - full year results
NatWest Group PLC - Q1 results
Pearson PLC - Q1 results
Rotork PLC - trading statement
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
TUESDAY: BP has already trailed that first quarter results should include an "exceptional" oil trading result boosted by stronger refining margins and higher oil prices reflecting the Middle East crisis. Just how "exceptional" remains to be seen, but with BP outperforming peers by 10% since the onset of war, the market clearly sees BP as a 'winner' from the shifting industry landscape. Otherwise, the results will give new Chief Executive Meg O'Neill a first opportunity to make her mark. RBC Capital Markets says it seems all of the 'kitchen-sinking' items were dealt with at fourth quarter results (renewables impairments, buyback cut), leaving the new CEO, who joined at the start of April, in a "good position" to focus on the positive aspects of the investment case going forward. Recent press reports suggest BP is planning to simplify the current organisation into two upstream & downstream units, signalling a continued shift away from its previous forays into renewables. For the quarter, company compiled consensus looks for replacement cost profit before interest and tax of GBP5.81 billion and underlying replacement cost result of GBP2.67 billion.
TUESDAY: The Bank of Japan kicks off a busy week of central bank meetings and may set the trend for others to follow, by leaving rates on hold at 0.75%. At its March meeting, the BoJ struck a 'hawkish' tone, teeing up a possible rate hike in April. However, analysts point to recent soft data and the Middle East crisis as reasons why the BoJ will stand pat. Bank of America expects a 'hawkish' hold and sees BoJ Governor Ueda keeping expectations of a hike from June onward "alive". BofA which had predicted a rate rise in April, now "tentatively" revises its call for the next rate hike to June. Citi agrees a hawkish hold is likely and pencils in a rate increase for July. Focus will be on voting behaviour of board members to gauge the degree of hawkishness, Citi adds. Goldman Sachs also looks for the BoJ to remain on hold. "The BoJ is likely to judge that the cost of a rate hike negatively impacting an economy with seemingly large downside risks is greater than the cost of waiting at this point," it says. ING though continues to believe there's a chance that the BoJ may hike given concerns that higher inflation expectations are likely to increase as real interest rates remain deeply negative.
TUESDAY: At Coca-Cola, UBS forecast first quarter EPS of USD0.81, in line with Visible Alpha/FactSet consensus. The broker expects the soft drinks and snacks maker to deliver another quarter of strong organic sales growth and projects full-year underlying guidance to be maintained. While there is a chance the currency outlook may need to be modestly adjusted, UBS does not think this will be viewed as a major surprise and still believes the combined EPS growth range of 7% to 8% remains achievable. On sales, consensus looks for revenue of USD12.17 billion, with organic sales growth of 6.5% on-year. By region, year-on-year organic sales growth is forecast of 7.5% in North America, 5.6% in Europe, Middle East & Africa, 8.3% in Latin America, 2.9% in Asia Pacific and 5.0% in Bottling Investments Group. AJ Bell thinks that should inflationary pressures take hold Coca-Cola should be "fairly well placed thanks to its strong brand and its core products' status as an affordable treat."
TUESDAY: RBC expects a second quarter top-line beat from coffee chain Starbucks, though it thinks buy-side expectations are at least 100 basis points ahead of the 'Street'. In January, Seattle-based Starbucks said its recovery under Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol was "ahead of schedule" as revenue rose 5.5% to USD9.92 billion in the first quarter of its financial year from USD9.40 billion a year prior. For the second quarter, Visible Alpha consensus forecast revenue of USD9.08 billion and diluted EPS of USD0.40. RBC expects North American same store sales growth of 5%, ahead of 3.9% consensus, although the broker thinks the buy side is closer to 5% to 6%. UBS sees likely upside to margins and earnings at Starbucks and expects progress on strategic initiatives to support accelerating sales. Focus for the earnings call is on US sales trends, updates on strategic initiatives progress & cost savings plans, and possible updates to guidance, UBS says.
TUESDAY: Barclays kicks off the UK banking results season with sector share prices volatile amid the Middle East crisis and with political unease ahead of May UK local elections. For the first quarter, Visible Alpha consensus looks for total income of GBP7.86 billion, including net interest income of GBP3.72 billion. Underlying pretax profit is projected at GBP2.56 billion, with EPS of 12.6 pence, impairments of GBP893 million and a GBP500 million share buyback. UBS expects a focus on strength in investment banking sales and trading volumes given results from US investment banks, credit risk in private credit, US card profitability, top line dynamics in UK retail, commercial and wealth and cost efficiency. Citigroup expects Barclays to reiterate all existing targets including return on tangible equity of more than 12% in 2026 and more than 14% in 2028.
WEDNESDAY: The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates on hold as it weighs risks of higher inflation from soaring oil prices, and awaits the start date of its new chair. Recent data showed the US consumer price index inflation rate accelerated to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. The energy index rose 10.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005, while the gasoline index increased 21.2% over the month, the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967. As a result, Barclays is among those expecting the US central bank to maintain the fed funds rate target range at 3.50-3.75%. Barclays expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to "sound somewhat hawkish" and to signal that the Federal Open Market Committee is in a "holding pattern." Powell may also no longer emphasise that the base case involves additional rate cuts, Barclays thinks. Powell's term as chair ends on May 15, but the appointment of his nominated successor Kevin Warsh is yet to be approved. Citigroup thinks Warsh will attempt to convince the FOMC to lower rates by the end of the year, in part on his expectation for deflationary AI-related productivity growth. Warsh has also indicated he would prefer to follow inflation through a trimmed gauge as opposed to the Fed's favoured core price index for personal consumption expenditures.
WEDNESDAY: The Bank of Canada is also expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% with analysts at Bank of America expecting the central bank to "remain on hold" through year‑end as it evaluates developments surrounding the Iran conflict. "We expect the BoC to look through higher headline inflation as core inflation seems contained," BofA says. "Moreover, with a weak beginning of the year, a negative output gap and a soft labor market, we see arguments against potential hikes," BofA adds. The broker expects forward guidance to "acknowledge these risks and adopt a cautious tone."
WEDNESDAY: Inflation in Australia is expected to jump in March as energy costs soar. Bloomberg consensus forecast headline consumer prices to rise 4.8% year-on-year in March from 3.7% on-year in February, with monthly trimmed mean consumer price inflation unchanged at 3.3%. ING pencils in a below consensus annual increase of 4.6% in headline CPI but sees further pressure ahead, assuming no "meaningful" de‑escalation in the war. "If the Reserve Bank of Australia intends to stay ahead of the curve, it's likely to move in May rather than waiting until August," ING says, predicting interest rate increases. Goldman Sachs sits above consensus and forecasts headline CPI annual growth of 5.1% in March, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6% from February. The increase is driven by a forecast 35% on-month rise in fuel costs with international travel prices up 3.7% on-month, Goldman says. In terms of the read-through for the RBA's preferred quarterly trimmed mean measure, Goldman continues to expect a 1.00% quarer-on-quarter increase, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.6%, with Bloomberg consensus at 0.9% and 3.5% respectively.
WEDNESDAY: AstraZeneca will be looking to regain its position as the most valuable UK-listed company, when it reports first quarter results. The Cambridge-based pharmaceuticals giant is vying for top spot with Asia-focused bank HSBC, with recent share price falls seeing it back in second spot. For the quarter, Visible Alpha consensus projects drug sales of USD14.04 billion and product revenue of USD839 million, giving total revenue of USD14.81 billion. Core operating profit is forecast of USD5.20 billion with core EPS of USD2.58. UBS expects continued strong momentum for key oncology growth drivers at AstraZeneca such as Imfinzi, Tagrisso, Calquence. Elsewhere, updates on the drugs pipeline will be eagerly watched. JPMorgan expects first quarter revenue ahead of consensus but thinks higher costs will drag core operating profit below market hopes. Nonetheless, JPM expects the FTSE 100 listing to retain guidance for 2026 revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits range at constant exchange rates, and for core EPS to increase by a low double-digit percentage at CER.
WEDNESDAY: The focus at first quarter earnings from GSK will likely be on launches of cancer drug Blenrep and asthma treatment Exdensur, other pipeline progress, and business development. Analysts expect a mixed sales performance with strong year-on-year growth in Speciality Medicines offset by sluggish growth in Vaccines and a modest decline in General Medicines. Company compiled consensus forecasts turnover of GBP7.58 billion, including Speciality sales of GBP3.23 billion, Vaccines sales of GBP2.03 billion and General Medicines sales of GBP2.32 billion. Operating profit is expected to be GBP2.46 billion, operating margin 32.5%, and pretax profit of GBP2.32 billion. Earnings per share are projected of 43.3 pence with a dividend of 17.1p per share. UBS expects solid growth momentum for GSK's Cabenuva, Benlysta, Nucala drugs and looks for early commentary on Blenrep/Exdensur uptake. US prescription trends point to weak General Medicines performance, UBS points out. Looking ahead, JPMorgan expects GSK to reiterate guidance for turnover growth of between 3% to 5% in 2026, core operating profit growth of between 7% to 9% and core EPS growth of between 7% to 9%. GSK has previously said it expects 2031 sales of more than GBP40 billion.
WEDNESDAY: Lloyds Banking Group follows Barclays in reporting first quarter numbers. Visible Alpha consensus looks for total income of GBP5.22 billion, including net interest income of GBP3.56 billion. Underlying pretax profit, including remediation costs, is projected of GBP1.94 billion, with statutory pretax profit of GBP1.89 billion, EPS of 2.1p and impairments of GBP382 million. No buyback is expected. UBS expects a focus on sequential movement in net interest income and net interest margin; other operating income growth, including the impact of Schroders Personal Wealth acquisition; costs, which are guided to increase just 1% this year; and loan loss charges. Guidance will be in the spotlight with Lloyds currently projecting NII of GBP14.9 billion for 2026 and a return on tangible equity of 16%. Although Citigroup does not expect any new targets, noting management plan to host a new strategic plan with the half-year results in July.
WEDNESDAY: Google-owner Alphabet is expected to report solid advertising growth when it reports first quarter earnings, supported by AI investments. The Mountain View, California-based technology conglomerate joined the 'Mag 7' spending spree, announcing plans in February to spend between USD175 billion to USD185 billion in 2026 on capital investment, up from USD91.4 billion in 2025. Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said the investment reflects buoyant demand, and "growing opportunities ahead". TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge expects "robust" 16% year-on-year Search revenue growth in the quarter and Cloud revenue growth of 50% on-year, helped by AI efforts. "Investors will look for signs of a continued resilient consumer driving ongoing digital ad strength, as well as progress in Google's GenAI initiatives, especially given recent success since the company unveiled Gemini 3 in late 2025," he says. Gemini 3 is Google's latest AI model. In February, Alphabet said both 'AI Mode' and 'AI Overviews' are leading to higher sales. For the quarter, FactSet consensus looks for total revenue of USD107.67 billion, up 19% on-year, and GAAP EPS of USD2.63, down 6.4%. By division, consensus forecast revenue of USD59.07 billion in Google Search, up 17% on-year, total Services revenue of USD87.88 billion, up 14% on-year, and Cloud revenue of USD19.31 billion, up 58% on-year. For second quarter guidance, consensus looks for revenue of USD113.95 billion and EPS of USD2.80. Citi says its five areas to watch are: Gemini adoption, Search advertising growth, Cloud demand, capex, and operating income margins.
WEDNESDAY: The pace of growth at its cloud computing platform, Azure, will likely be the focus when Microsoft reports third quarter earnings. Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft is the world's largest software company and the leading provider of operating systems for the PC and server markets. But the stock has been in the doldrums, and still sits 12% lower year-to-date despite a recent rally. Goldman Sachs says the stock is lower primarily due to upward revisions to capex without commensurate upward revisions to Azure growth, resurfacing concerns on return on investment; and ongoing worries that Microsoft's Office 365 business may be hurt by new AI competition, fuelled by a perception that its Copilot functionality lags other AI tools. On Azure, Bank of America notes that last quarter the unit grew 38% at constant exchange rates, with management suggesting growth could have been 40% plus absent supply constraints. BofA thinks Azure growth will remain gated by these constraints rather than by demand, with further AI capacity due by the end of financial 2026. As a result, BofA looks for Azure revenue growth of 37.5% at CER, in line with Street expectations, with capex moderating to USD26.9 billion from USD29.9 billion in the prior quarter. BofA says it will also be watching Copilot monetisation and the penetration within Microsoft's M365 commercial base following a "relatively modest" Copilot "seats level" last quarter. For the quarter, Bloomberg consensus forecast revenue of USD81.42 billion, up 16% on-year, Azure revenue of USD29.05 billion, up 38% on-year, capex of USD26.69 billion, net income of USD30.12 billion, and GAAP EPS of USD4.04, up 17% on-year. On Copilot, Goldman believes reacceleration in M365 will take time given the scale of the installed base. However, the broker believes the pace of deceleration in M365 has already slowed and Copilot data points are improving. For the fourth quarter, Goldman expects Microsoft to guide to Azure growth in line to potentially slightly below the Street at 38% CER.
WEDNESDAY: Investors will cast a watchful eye on Meta Platforms' capex plans after the Facebook owner announced 2026 spending plans could be double last year's. The Menlo Park, California-based technology firm which also owns WhatsApp and Instagram said capex in 2026 will be between USD115 to USD135 billion, a bumper increase from USD72.22 billion in 2025, and ahead of USD110 billion consensus at the time. The investment is expected to drive revenue growth, led by AI-powered features, and drive efficiencies. Ahead of the results, Meta said it will lay off about 8,000 employees in May and leave thousands of other positions unfilled. In addition, attention will focus on second quarter guidance and further colour on Muse Spark, Meta's new large language model, plus any impact after a recent litigation found Meta's YouTube liable in a social media addiction trial. For the quarter, FactSet consensus projects revenue of USD55.36 billion, up 31% on-year, capex of USD25.80 billion, and GAAP EPS of USD6.58, up 2.4% on-year. For the second quarter, consensus eyes revenue of USD60.17 billion and GAAP EPS of USD7.07.
WEDNESDAY: Goldman Sachs expects investors in Amazon.com to focus on Amazon Web Services revenue growth rate, how rising energy prices might impact costs and/or consumer demand in coming quarters, updates on Amazon Leo and its advertising/marketing platform strategy. In February, the Bellevue, Washington-based technology company surprised the market with aggressive investment proposals. It plans to invest USD200 billion in 2026, around 52% ahead of 2025's USD131.8 billion. Chief Executive Andy Jassy said the increased spend would "predominantly" go to AWS, Amazon's cloud computing business, to cope with high demand. For the quarter, FactSet consensus looks for revenue of USD177.10 billion, up 14% on-year, with AWS revenue of USD36.49 billion, up 24% on-year, and EPS of USD1.67. For second quarter guidance, FactSet forecasts revenue of USD188.55 billion and GAAP EPS of USD1.74. John Blackledge at TD Cowen thinks Amazon will deliver revenue slightly above consensus driven by accelerating AWS sales driven by ramping GenAI workloads. He thinks the capex ramp will start to ease supply constraints. Citi agrees results are likely to beat expectations. Five areas Citi will be watching are: AWS growth; retail demand & agentic commerce progress; North America margins; capex plans and AWS capacity build-out; and operating margins.
THURSDAY: Analysts expect the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% amid the Middle East crisis. After months of finely balanced decisions, March saw a decisive 9-0 vote in favour of keeping rates on hold as the inflationary impact of the war unfolds. Another strong vote to peg rates is expected, with analysts seeing a 9-0, 8-1 or 7-2 make up in favour of the status quo. In March, UK inflation accelerated as higher fuel and heating oil prices pushed up costs. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, headline consumer prices index inflation rose to 3.3% in the year to March from 3.0% in February. While markets have been quick to price in possible interest rates hikes later in the year, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears to have placed himself in the 'wait-and-see' camp. UBS notes Bailey has actively pushed back saying that markets were getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes, while Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor, stated in a recent speech that he sees "a high bar to hiking." RBC Capital Markets thinks BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill could be the lone dissenter at the meeting and back a rate increase. Pill recently said the BoE needs "to entertain the possibility that more [restrictiveness] may be required". UBS expects the BoE to stay on hold over the coming months, before delivering two interest rate cuts, in November and February next year. Bank of America thinks Megan Greene could join Pill in pressing the case for higher rates. BofA expects the BoE to rule out near-term rate cuts, keep the door open to modest hikes if energy prices stay elevated, but say aggressive tightening is unlikely.
THURSDAY: The European Central Bank is also expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, but increases remain on the cards in the coming months. UBS doesn't think the Frankfurt-based lender will have sufficient data to justify a rate hike by the time of the April meeting. It also points to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel, which suggest that the central will take its time before deciding on rate hikes. UBS expects two rate hikes, one in June and one in September, with a pause in July. Much depends on the Middle East, UBS stresses, where a durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to lower energy prices and grant the ECB more time before deciding on rate hikes. RBC Capital Markets looks for two quarter point rate hikes in September and December bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. RBC thinks the ECB can "afford to take the time to wait until it has plenty of data to assess the medium-term impacts of inflation, at which point it will be clear there is an element of persistence."
THURSDAY: Euro area inflation is expected to push higher in April with energy inflation hitting double-digits amid surging prices. Goldman expects euro area headline harmonised index of consumer prices, a standardised measure of inflation used across the European Union, to increase to 3.1% on-year in April from 2.6% in the 12 months to March. Core HICP inflation is projected to move sideways at 2.30% on-year in the 'flash' release, Goldman forecasts. Energy inflation will likely increase further to 10.7% on-year from 5.1% in March, Goldman says, although uncertainty "remains high". "The surge in energy prices in light of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had a notable impact on our headline inflation forecast," Goldman says. It sees headline inflation, averaging 2.8% on-year in in 2026, peaking at 3.2% in the second quarter, before easing to 2.1% on-year in 2027.
THURSDAY: The changing of the guard will be in the spotlight at Apple following the news that Chief Executive Tim Cook is stepping down. Cook will become executive chair, with current senior vice president of Hardware Engineering John Ternus to take charge of the iPhone maker from the start of September. Cook has been at the helm for 15 years, after succeeding Steve Jobs. The news comes ahead of results which should benefit from ongoing strength in iPhone sales, Services and a benefit from foreign exchange. In January, the Cupertino, California-based technology firm hailed "unprecedented" demand for the iPhone 17, and gave an optimistic outlook, despite flagging concerns around supply constraints and rising memory costs. For the March quarter, the second of Apple's financial year, consensus looks for revenue of USD109 billion and EPS of USD1.93. There have been concerns that rising memory costs will dent margins but Goldman Sachs thinks these worries are "overly pessimistic." Goldman looks for outperformance on iPhone revenue, Mac revenue, and gross margins and thinks the results will also be flattered by favourable forex, as well as strong underlying Services revenue growth. Goldman forecast iPhone revenue of USD56.6 billion, up 21% on-year, above consensus of USD55.6 billion, Services revenue up 14% on-year, in-line with both consensus and company guidance, and gross margins of 49.0% versus consensus of 48.3%. Bank of America expects Apple to guide third quarter revenue growth of 10% to 15% on-year and GM range of 47% to 48%, with revenue and EPS of USD106 billion and USD1.82 versus USD103 billion and USD1.74 consensus. Taking a less optimistic near-term view, Jefferies expect a slight miss in the March quarter. The broker thinks a strong sell through may lead to "overly optimistic" consensus for the quarter while it forecasts lower gross margins on iPhone due to higher memory costs. TD Cowen expects an in line quarter, with a strong iPhone 17 cycle and new MacBook Neo driving share gains. Apple's "ability to mitigate memory cost inflation and launch a compelling new AI Siri will be next catalysts to watch," TD Cowen says.
THURSDAY: Attention at Eli Lilly results will likely focus on the performance and outlook of weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. JPMorgan forecast total first quarter sales of USD17.6 billion, versus USD17.8 billion consensus, and EPS of USD7.26, roughly in line with consensus. JPM's forecast reflects above consensus glucagon-like peptide-1 sales and below consensus non-GLP-1 results with overall sales growing 38% year-on-year and GLP-1 sales up 70%. Mounjaro international sales are again a potential source of upside in the quarter, in JPM's view, now that it has launched in all major markets. For 2026, JPM estimates sales of USD82.4 billion and EPS of USD34.59. JPM sees the ramp of Mounjaro internationally continuing to surpass expectations, and thinks Zepbound's ramp into Medicare beginning in July could be an additional source of upside to estimates. The launch of oral weight loss drug Foundayo is another potential upside driver, JPM says. Goldman Sachs says monitoring the Foundayo launch seems likely to be the key sentiment driver for Eli Lilly shares in the coming weeks/months.
THURSDAY: There will be plenty to chew when Unilever reports first quarter numbers after the market gave an initially lukewarm reaction to its deal with McCormick & Co. The consumer goods company, which owns brands such as Lipton tea and Hellmann's mayonnaise, plans to combine its Foods business with McCormick in a deal valuing the unit at USD44.8 billion. The deal is not expected to close until mid-2027 and comes soon after the Magnum Ice Cream Co spin-off, another lengthy process. For the quarter, JPMorgan expects organic sales growth 3.8% with 2.0% volumes and 1.8% pricing. JPM projects Europe organic sales down 0.5%, North America up 2.5% and Latin America up 5.5%. By business group, JPM sees growth led by Beauty & Wellbeing, Home Care and Personal Care (all up 4.0% to 4.5%), with Foods slower at 2.5%. Citi expects volume headwinds to result in slower organic sales growth of 3.5%.
FRIDAY: NatWest is the last of the three domestic UK banks to update on its progress in the first three months of 2026. UBS expects the focus to be on how a higher-rates-lower-growth outlook impacts 2026 guidance. In addition, UBS expects questions on the impact of macro on loan demand and credit quality, and sees a drop in customer deposits. The broker also expects a market focus on other potential M&A, after the Evelyn Partners deal. Company-compiled consensus looks for total income of GBP4.31 billion, including net interest income of GBP3.41 billion, and pretax profit of GBP2.04 billion. Bank of America thinks income guidance for the year, which already feels "conservative" at the full year, should see more upside from the current rate environment given its rate sensitivity and cautious assumptions. JPMorgan agrees and sees potential for the outlook to be raised. Citigroup expects 2026 targets to be retained, but in time expects these to be "comfortably surpassed", helped by higher rates than company has assumed.
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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WEEK AHEAD: Fed, ECB and BoE holds, tech earnings bonanza and UK banks
24 april, 14:07
(Alliance News) - Prepare for a hectic week in financial markets, as a flurry of big tech results and central bank meetings hit the wires.
Rate calls in the US, Europe, UK and Japan lead the way, with inflation prints in Australia and Europe other notable releases.
Wednesday alone sees four of the 'Magnificent 7' report, with Apple posting a day later. In the UK, leading banks, pharmaceuticals and oil companies publish results, with a similarly stacked line-up in Europe.
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Monday 27 April
08:00 CEST Germany consumer confidence
Japan Bank of Japan meeting begins
South Africa Freedom Day. Financial markets closed.
10:30 EDT US Dallas Fed manufacturing index
Tuesday 28 April
11:00 CEST Italy PPI
12:00 JST Japan interest rate decision
12:00 JST Japan BoJ quarterly outlook report
09:00 CEST Spain unemployment
09:00 CEST Spain retail sales
08:00 BST UK Grocery Market Share – Worldpanel
09:00 EDT US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index
09:00 EDT US house price index
10:00 EDT US Conference Board consumer confidence
10:00 EDT US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
14:00 EDT US FOMC meetings begins
Wednesday 29 April
11:30 AEST Australia CPI
09:45 EDT Canada interest rate decision
09:45 EDT Canada BoC monetary policy report
10:30 EDT Canada BoC press conference
10:00 CEST eurozone money supply
11:00 CEST eurozone economic sentiment index
11:00 CEST eurozone industrial sentiment index
14:00 CEST Germany CPI
11:00 IST Ireland harmonised CPI
11:00 IST Ireland GDP
10:00 CEST Italy consumer confidence
14:00 JST Japan construction orders
Japan Showa Day. Financial markets closed.
09:00 CEST Spain CPI
12:00 CEST Spain business confidence
10:00 CEST Switzerland economic sentiment index
08:30 EDT US building permits
08:30 EDT US building permits
08:30 EDT US wholesale inventories
08:30 EDT US durable goods orders
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
14:00 EDT US interest rate decision
14:30 EDT US Fed press conference
Thursday 30 April
08:30 EDT Canada GDP
09:30 CST China NBS manufacturing PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone GDP
11:00 CEST eurozone CPI
11:00 CEST eurozone unemployment
14:15 CEST eurozone interest rate decision
14:45 CEST eurozone ECB press conference
07:30 CEST France GDP
08:45 CEST France CPI
08:45 CEST France PPI
08:00 CEST Germany retail sales
09:55 CEST Germany unemployment
10:00 CEST Germany GDP
10:00 CEST Italy GDP
10:30 CEST Italy unemployment
11:00 CEST Italy CPI
08:50 JST Japan retail sales
08:50 JST Japan industrial production
11:30 SAST South Africa PPI
14:00 SAST South Africa trade balance
09:00 CEST Spain GDP
10:00 CEST Spain current account
12:00 BST UK interest rate decision
12:00 BST UK BoE monetary policy report
12:00 BST UK MPC meeting minutes
08:30 EDT US personal consumption expenditures
08:30 EDT US employment cost index
08:30 EDT US GDP
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
08:30 EDT US quarterly personal consumption expenditures
09:45 EDT US Chicago PMI
10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks
Friday 1 May
09:00 AEST Australia manufacturing PMI
11:30 AEST Australia PPI
09:30 EDT Canada manufacturing PMI
China Labor Day. Financial markets in Shanghai,Shenzhen and Hong Kong closed.
France Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
Germany Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
01:01 IST Ireland AIB manufacturing PMI
Ireland Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
Italy Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
09:30 JST Japan manufacturing PMI
14:00 JST Japan consumer confidence
South Africa Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
Spain Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
08:30 CEST Switzerland retail sales
Switzerland Labor Day. Financial markets closed.
09:30 BST UK mortgage approvals
09:30 BST UK manufacturing PMI
09:45 EDT US manufacturing PMI
10:00 EDT US ISM manufacturing PMI
Top company events:
Monday 27 April
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc -Q1 results
Cadence Design Systems Inc - Q1 results
Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd - full year results
Deutsche Boerse AG - Q1 results
GE Aerospace - dividend payment date
Henkel AG & Co KGaA - AGM
Nordex SE - Q1 results
Verizon Communications Inc - Q1 results
Tuesday 28 April
Air Liquide SA - Q1 results
Airbus SE - Q1 results
Anglo American PLC - trading statement
Barclays PLC - Q1 results
Booking Holdings Inc - Q1 results
BP PLC - Q1 results
Coca-Cola Co - Q1 results
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC - trading statement
Enphase Energy Inc - Q1 results
General Motors Co - Q1 results
Mondelez International Inc - Q1 results
Novartis AG - Q1 results
NXP Semiconductors NV - Q1 results
Ocado Group PLC - AGM
Oriental Land Co Ltd - full year results
Sherwin-Williams Co - Q1 results
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd - full year results
Starbucks Corp - half year results
Teleperformance SE - Q1 results
T-Mobile US - Q1 results
Travis Perkins PLC - trading statement
Visa Inc - half year results
Wells Fargo & Co - AGM
Worldline SA - trading statement
Wednesday 29 April
A2a Spa - AGM
AbbVie Inc - Q1 results
Aberdeen Group PLC - AGM
Adidas AG - Q1 results
Admiral Group PLC - AGM
Align Technology Inc - Q1 results
Alliance Witan PLC - AGM
Alphabet Inc - Q1 results
Amazon.com Inc - Q1 results
Amphenol Corp - Q1 results
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC - Q1 results
AstraZeneca PLC - Q1 results
Automatic Data Processing Inc - Q3 results
Banco Santander SA - Q1 results
Biogen Inc - Q1 results
Computacenter PLC - Q1 results
Deutsche Bank AG - Q1 results
DWS Group GmbH & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Elementis PLC - trading statement
Engie SA - GM
Entain PLC - AGM
F&C Investment Trust PLC - AGM
FinecoBank Spa - AGM
Fuchs SE - Q1 results
Gap Inc - dividend payment date
Garmin Ltd - Q1 results
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc - Q1 results
GEA Group AG - AGM
GSK PLC - Q1 results
Haleon PLC - trading statement
Haleon PLC - AGM
Hera Spa - AGM
Hochtief AG - AGM
JD Wetherspoon PLC - trading statement
LLoyds Banking Group PLC - Q1 results
Melrose Industries PLC - AGM
Mercedes-Benz Group AG - Q1 results
Meta Platforms Inc - Q1 results
Michelin - Q1 results
Microsoft Corp - Q3 results
Munich Re AG - AGM
Nexi Spa - AGM
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc - Q1 results
O'Reilly Automotive Inc - Q1 results
Porsche AG - Q1 results
Primary Health Properties PLC - AGM
Prysmian Spa - Q1 results
Qualcomm Inc - half year results
Rational AG - AGM
Recordati Spa - AGM
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc - Q1 results
SBA Communications Corp - Q1 results
Scout24 SE - Q1 results
Siltronic AG - Q1 results
Snam Spa - AGM
St James's Place PLC - Q1 results
Symrise AG - Q1 results
TotalEnergies SE - Q1 results
Traton SE - Q1 results
UBS Group AG - Q1 results
Verisk Analytics Inc - Q1 results
Wacker Chemie AG - Q1 results
Woodside Energy Group Ltd - Q1 results
Thursday 30 April
AIA Group Ltd - Q1 results
Aixtron SE - Q1 results
Apple Inc - half year results
ArcelorMittal SA - Q1 results
Atlassian Corp - Q3 results
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA - Q1 results
BASF SE - Q1 results
Beazley PLC - trading statement
BNP Paribas SA - Q1 results
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co - Q1 results
Capgemini SE - trading statement
Caterpillar Inc - Q1 results
Credit Agricole SA - Q1 results
DBS Group Holdings Ltd - Q1 results
Delivery Hero SE - Q1 results
Deutsche Post AG - Q1 results
DexCom Inc - Q1 results
Draegerwerk AG & CO KGAA - Q1 results
Drax Group PLC - trading statement
Eli Lilly & Co - Q1 results
Endeavour Mining PLC - Q1 results
Glencore PLC - Q1 results
Hella GmbH & Co KGaA - Q1 results
Hoya Corp - full year results
Iberdrola SA - Q1 results
Illumina Inc - Q1 results
Inchcape PLC - trading statement
ING Group NV - Q1 results
Intercontinental Exchange Inc - Q1 results
Kingspan Group PLC - trading statement
Kion Group AG - Q1 results
Lancashire Holdings Ltd - trading statement
MasterCard Inc - Q1 results
Merck & Co Inc - Q1 results
MONY Group PLC - trading statement
MTU Aero Engines AG - Q1 results
Murata Manufacturing Co Ltd - full year results
Nemetschek SE - Q1 results
OSB Group PLC - trading statement
Persimmon PLC - trading statement
Prudential PLC - Q1 results
PUMA SE - Q1 results
Samsung Electronics Co - Q1 results
Schneider Electric SE - Q1 results
Sirius XM Holdings Inc - Q1 results
Smurfit WestRock PLC - Q1 results
Societe Generale SA - Q1 results
Standard Chartered PLC - Q1 results
Stellantis NV - Q1 results
Tokyo Electron Ltd - full year results
Unilever PLC - trading statement
Volkswagen AG - Q1 results
Whitbread PLC - full year results
Woolworths Group Ltd - Q3 results
Friday 1 May
Aon PLC - Q1 results
Cboe Global Markets Inc - Q1 results
Chevron Corp - Q1 results
Coles Group Ltd - Q3 results
Colgate-Palmolive Co - Q1 results
Exxon Mobil Corp - Q1 results
Estee Lauder Cos Inc - Q3 results
Linde PLC - Q1 results
Mitsubishi Corp - full year results
NatWest Group PLC - Q1 results
Pearson PLC - Q1 results
Rotork PLC - trading statement
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
TUESDAY: BP has already trailed that first quarter results should include an "exceptional" oil trading result boosted by stronger refining margins and higher oil prices reflecting the Middle East crisis. Just how "exceptional" remains to be seen, but with BP outperforming peers by 10% since the onset of war, the market clearly sees BP as a 'winner' from the shifting industry landscape. Otherwise, the results will give new Chief Executive Meg O'Neill a first opportunity to make her mark. RBC Capital Markets says it seems all of the 'kitchen-sinking' items were dealt with at fourth quarter results (renewables impairments, buyback cut), leaving the new CEO, who joined at the start of April, in a "good position" to focus on the positive aspects of the investment case going forward. Recent press reports suggest BP is planning to simplify the current organisation into two upstream & downstream units, signalling a continued shift away from its previous forays into renewables. For the quarter, company compiled consensus looks for replacement cost profit before interest and tax of GBP5.81 billion and underlying replacement cost result of GBP2.67 billion.
TUESDAY: The Bank of Japan kicks off a busy week of central bank meetings and may set the trend for others to follow, by leaving rates on hold at 0.75%. At its March meeting, the BoJ struck a 'hawkish' tone, teeing up a possible rate hike in April. However, analysts point to recent soft data and the Middle East crisis as reasons why the BoJ will stand pat. Bank of America expects a 'hawkish' hold and sees BoJ Governor Ueda keeping expectations of a hike from June onward "alive". BofA which had predicted a rate rise in April, now "tentatively" revises its call for the next rate hike to June. Citi agrees a hawkish hold is likely and pencils in a rate increase for July. Focus will be on voting behaviour of board members to gauge the degree of hawkishness, Citi adds. Goldman Sachs also looks for the BoJ to remain on hold. "The BoJ is likely to judge that the cost of a rate hike negatively impacting an economy with seemingly large downside risks is greater than the cost of waiting at this point," it says. ING though continues to believe there's a chance that the BoJ may hike given concerns that higher inflation expectations are likely to increase as real interest rates remain deeply negative.
TUESDAY: At Coca-Cola, UBS forecast first quarter EPS of USD0.81, in line with Visible Alpha/FactSet consensus. The broker expects the soft drinks and snacks maker to deliver another quarter of strong organic sales growth and projects full-year underlying guidance to be maintained. While there is a chance the currency outlook may need to be modestly adjusted, UBS does not think this will be viewed as a major surprise and still believes the combined EPS growth range of 7% to 8% remains achievable. On sales, consensus looks for revenue of USD12.17 billion, with organic sales growth of 6.5% on-year. By region, year-on-year organic sales growth is forecast of 7.5% in North America, 5.6% in Europe, Middle East & Africa, 8.3% in Latin America, 2.9% in Asia Pacific and 5.0% in Bottling Investments Group. AJ Bell thinks that should inflationary pressures take hold Coca-Cola should be "fairly well placed thanks to its strong brand and its core products' status as an affordable treat."
TUESDAY: RBC expects a second quarter top-line beat from coffee chain Starbucks, though it thinks buy-side expectations are at least 100 basis points ahead of the 'Street'. In January, Seattle-based Starbucks said its recovery under Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol was "ahead of schedule" as revenue rose 5.5% to USD9.92 billion in the first quarter of its financial year from USD9.40 billion a year prior. For the second quarter, Visible Alpha consensus forecast revenue of USD9.08 billion and diluted EPS of USD0.40. RBC expects North American same store sales growth of 5%, ahead of 3.9% consensus, although the broker thinks the buy side is closer to 5% to 6%. UBS sees likely upside to margins and earnings at Starbucks and expects progress on strategic initiatives to support accelerating sales. Focus for the earnings call is on US sales trends, updates on strategic initiatives progress & cost savings plans, and possible updates to guidance, UBS says.
TUESDAY: Barclays kicks off the UK banking results season with sector share prices volatile amid the Middle East crisis and with political unease ahead of May UK local elections. For the first quarter, Visible Alpha consensus looks for total income of GBP7.86 billion, including net interest income of GBP3.72 billion. Underlying pretax profit is projected at GBP2.56 billion, with EPS of 12.6 pence, impairments of GBP893 million and a GBP500 million share buyback. UBS expects a focus on strength in investment banking sales and trading volumes given results from US investment banks, credit risk in private credit, US card profitability, top line dynamics in UK retail, commercial and wealth and cost efficiency. Citigroup expects Barclays to reiterate all existing targets including return on tangible equity of more than 12% in 2026 and more than 14% in 2028.
WEDNESDAY: The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates on hold as it weighs risks of higher inflation from soaring oil prices, and awaits the start date of its new chair. Recent data showed the US consumer price index inflation rate accelerated to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. The energy index rose 10.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005, while the gasoline index increased 21.2% over the month, the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967. As a result, Barclays is among those expecting the US central bank to maintain the fed funds rate target range at 3.50-3.75%. Barclays expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to "sound somewhat hawkish" and to signal that the Federal Open Market Committee is in a "holding pattern." Powell may also no longer emphasise that the base case involves additional rate cuts, Barclays thinks. Powell's term as chair ends on May 15, but the appointment of his nominated successor Kevin Warsh is yet to be approved. Citigroup thinks Warsh will attempt to convince the FOMC to lower rates by the end of the year, in part on his expectation for deflationary AI-related productivity growth. Warsh has also indicated he would prefer to follow inflation through a trimmed gauge as opposed to the Fed's favoured core price index for personal consumption expenditures.
WEDNESDAY: The Bank of Canada is also expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% with analysts at Bank of America expecting the central bank to "remain on hold" through year‑end as it evaluates developments surrounding the Iran conflict. "We expect the BoC to look through higher headline inflation as core inflation seems contained," BofA says. "Moreover, with a weak beginning of the year, a negative output gap and a soft labor market, we see arguments against potential hikes," BofA adds. The broker expects forward guidance to "acknowledge these risks and adopt a cautious tone."
WEDNESDAY: Inflation in Australia is expected to jump in March as energy costs soar. Bloomberg consensus forecast headline consumer prices to rise 4.8% year-on-year in March from 3.7% on-year in February, with monthly trimmed mean consumer price inflation unchanged at 3.3%. ING pencils in a below consensus annual increase of 4.6% in headline CPI but sees further pressure ahead, assuming no "meaningful" de‑escalation in the war. "If the Reserve Bank of Australia intends to stay ahead of the curve, it's likely to move in May rather than waiting until August," ING says, predicting interest rate increases. Goldman Sachs sits above consensus and forecasts headline CPI annual growth of 5.1% in March, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6% from February. The increase is driven by a forecast 35% on-month rise in fuel costs with international travel prices up 3.7% on-month, Goldman says. In terms of the read-through for the RBA's preferred quarterly trimmed mean measure, Goldman continues to expect a 1.00% quarer-on-quarter increase, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.6%, with Bloomberg consensus at 0.9% and 3.5% respectively.
WEDNESDAY: AstraZeneca will be looking to regain its position as the most valuable UK-listed company, when it reports first quarter results. The Cambridge-based pharmaceuticals giant is vying for top spot with Asia-focused bank HSBC, with recent share price falls seeing it back in second spot. For the quarter, Visible Alpha consensus projects drug sales of USD14.04 billion and product revenue of USD839 million, giving total revenue of USD14.81 billion. Core operating profit is forecast of USD5.20 billion with core EPS of USD2.58. UBS expects continued strong momentum for key oncology growth drivers at AstraZeneca such as Imfinzi, Tagrisso, Calquence. Elsewhere, updates on the drugs pipeline will be eagerly watched. JPMorgan expects first quarter revenue ahead of consensus but thinks higher costs will drag core operating profit below market hopes. Nonetheless, JPM expects the FTSE 100 listing to retain guidance for 2026 revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits range at constant exchange rates, and for core EPS to increase by a low double-digit percentage at CER.
WEDNESDAY: The focus at first quarter earnings from GSK will likely be on launches of cancer drug Blenrep and asthma treatment Exdensur, other pipeline progress, and business development. Analysts expect a mixed sales performance with strong year-on-year growth in Speciality Medicines offset by sluggish growth in Vaccines and a modest decline in General Medicines. Company compiled consensus forecasts turnover of GBP7.58 billion, including Speciality sales of GBP3.23 billion, Vaccines sales of GBP2.03 billion and General Medicines sales of GBP2.32 billion. Operating profit is expected to be GBP2.46 billion, operating margin 32.5%, and pretax profit of GBP2.32 billion. Earnings per share are projected of 43.3 pence with a dividend of 17.1p per share. UBS expects solid growth momentum for GSK's Cabenuva, Benlysta, Nucala drugs and looks for early commentary on Blenrep/Exdensur uptake. US prescription trends point to weak General Medicines performance, UBS points out. Looking ahead, JPMorgan expects GSK to reiterate guidance for turnover growth of between 3% to 5% in 2026, core operating profit growth of between 7% to 9% and core EPS growth of between 7% to 9%. GSK has previously said it expects 2031 sales of more than GBP40 billion.
WEDNESDAY: Lloyds Banking Group follows Barclays in reporting first quarter numbers. Visible Alpha consensus looks for total income of GBP5.22 billion, including net interest income of GBP3.56 billion. Underlying pretax profit, including remediation costs, is projected of GBP1.94 billion, with statutory pretax profit of GBP1.89 billion, EPS of 2.1p and impairments of GBP382 million. No buyback is expected. UBS expects a focus on sequential movement in net interest income and net interest margin; other operating income growth, including the impact of Schroders Personal Wealth acquisition; costs, which are guided to increase just 1% this year; and loan loss charges. Guidance will be in the spotlight with Lloyds currently projecting NII of GBP14.9 billion for 2026 and a return on tangible equity of 16%. Although Citigroup does not expect any new targets, noting management plan to host a new strategic plan with the half-year results in July.
WEDNESDAY: Google-owner Alphabet is expected to report solid advertising growth when it reports first quarter earnings, supported by AI investments. The Mountain View, California-based technology conglomerate joined the 'Mag 7' spending spree, announcing plans in February to spend between USD175 billion to USD185 billion in 2026 on capital investment, up from USD91.4 billion in 2025. Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said the investment reflects buoyant demand, and "growing opportunities ahead". TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge expects "robust" 16% year-on-year Search revenue growth in the quarter and Cloud revenue growth of 50% on-year, helped by AI efforts. "Investors will look for signs of a continued resilient consumer driving ongoing digital ad strength, as well as progress in Google's GenAI initiatives, especially given recent success since the company unveiled Gemini 3 in late 2025," he says. Gemini 3 is Google's latest AI model. In February, Alphabet said both 'AI Mode' and 'AI Overviews' are leading to higher sales. For the quarter, FactSet consensus looks for total revenue of USD107.67 billion, up 19% on-year, and GAAP EPS of USD2.63, down 6.4%. By division, consensus forecast revenue of USD59.07 billion in Google Search, up 17% on-year, total Services revenue of USD87.88 billion, up 14% on-year, and Cloud revenue of USD19.31 billion, up 58% on-year. For second quarter guidance, consensus looks for revenue of USD113.95 billion and EPS of USD2.80. Citi says its five areas to watch are: Gemini adoption, Search advertising growth, Cloud demand, capex, and operating income margins.
WEDNESDAY: The pace of growth at its cloud computing platform, Azure, will likely be the focus when Microsoft reports third quarter earnings. Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft is the world's largest software company and the leading provider of operating systems for the PC and server markets. But the stock has been in the doldrums, and still sits 12% lower year-to-date despite a recent rally. Goldman Sachs says the stock is lower primarily due to upward revisions to capex without commensurate upward revisions to Azure growth, resurfacing concerns on return on investment; and ongoing worries that Microsoft's Office 365 business may be hurt by new AI competition, fuelled by a perception that its Copilot functionality lags other AI tools. On Azure, Bank of America notes that last quarter the unit grew 38% at constant exchange rates, with management suggesting growth could have been 40% plus absent supply constraints. BofA thinks Azure growth will remain gated by these constraints rather than by demand, with further AI capacity due by the end of financial 2026. As a result, BofA looks for Azure revenue growth of 37.5% at CER, in line with Street expectations, with capex moderating to USD26.9 billion from USD29.9 billion in the prior quarter. BofA says it will also be watching Copilot monetisation and the penetration within Microsoft's M365 commercial base following a "relatively modest" Copilot "seats level" last quarter. For the quarter, Bloomberg consensus forecast revenue of USD81.42 billion, up 16% on-year, Azure revenue of USD29.05 billion, up 38% on-year, capex of USD26.69 billion, net income of USD30.12 billion, and GAAP EPS of USD4.04, up 17% on-year. On Copilot, Goldman believes reacceleration in M365 will take time given the scale of the installed base. However, the broker believes the pace of deceleration in M365 has already slowed and Copilot data points are improving. For the fourth quarter, Goldman expects Microsoft to guide to Azure growth in line to potentially slightly below the Street at 38% CER.
WEDNESDAY: Investors will cast a watchful eye on Meta Platforms' capex plans after the Facebook owner announced 2026 spending plans could be double last year's. The Menlo Park, California-based technology firm which also owns WhatsApp and Instagram said capex in 2026 will be between USD115 to USD135 billion, a bumper increase from USD72.22 billion in 2025, and ahead of USD110 billion consensus at the time. The investment is expected to drive revenue growth, led by AI-powered features, and drive efficiencies. Ahead of the results, Meta said it will lay off about 8,000 employees in May and leave thousands of other positions unfilled. In addition, attention will focus on second quarter guidance and further colour on Muse Spark, Meta's new large language model, plus any impact after a recent litigation found Meta's YouTube liable in a social media addiction trial. For the quarter, FactSet consensus projects revenue of USD55.36 billion, up 31% on-year, capex of USD25.80 billion, and GAAP EPS of USD6.58, up 2.4% on-year. For the second quarter, consensus eyes revenue of USD60.17 billion and GAAP EPS of USD7.07.
WEDNESDAY: Goldman Sachs expects investors in Amazon.com to focus on Amazon Web Services revenue growth rate, how rising energy prices might impact costs and/or consumer demand in coming quarters, updates on Amazon Leo and its advertising/marketing platform strategy. In February, the Bellevue, Washington-based technology company surprised the market with aggressive investment proposals. It plans to invest USD200 billion in 2026, around 52% ahead of 2025's USD131.8 billion. Chief Executive Andy Jassy said the increased spend would "predominantly" go to AWS, Amazon's cloud computing business, to cope with high demand. For the quarter, FactSet consensus looks for revenue of USD177.10 billion, up 14% on-year, with AWS revenue of USD36.49 billion, up 24% on-year, and EPS of USD1.67. For second quarter guidance, FactSet forecasts revenue of USD188.55 billion and GAAP EPS of USD1.74. John Blackledge at TD Cowen thinks Amazon will deliver revenue slightly above consensus driven by accelerating AWS sales driven by ramping GenAI workloads. He thinks the capex ramp will start to ease supply constraints. Citi agrees results are likely to beat expectations. Five areas Citi will be watching are: AWS growth; retail demand & agentic commerce progress; North America margins; capex plans and AWS capacity build-out; and operating margins.
THURSDAY: Analysts expect the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% amid the Middle East crisis. After months of finely balanced decisions, March saw a decisive 9-0 vote in favour of keeping rates on hold as the inflationary impact of the war unfolds. Another strong vote to peg rates is expected, with analysts seeing a 9-0, 8-1 or 7-2 make up in favour of the status quo. In March, UK inflation accelerated as higher fuel and heating oil prices pushed up costs. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, headline consumer prices index inflation rose to 3.3% in the year to March from 3.0% in February. While markets have been quick to price in possible interest rates hikes later in the year, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears to have placed himself in the 'wait-and-see' camp. UBS notes Bailey has actively pushed back saying that markets were getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes, while Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor, stated in a recent speech that he sees "a high bar to hiking." RBC Capital Markets thinks BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill could be the lone dissenter at the meeting and back a rate increase. Pill recently said the BoE needs "to entertain the possibility that more [restrictiveness] may be required". UBS expects the BoE to stay on hold over the coming months, before delivering two interest rate cuts, in November and February next year. Bank of America thinks Megan Greene could join Pill in pressing the case for higher rates. BofA expects the BoE to rule out near-term rate cuts, keep the door open to modest hikes if energy prices stay elevated, but say aggressive tightening is unlikely.
THURSDAY: The European Central Bank is also expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, but increases remain on the cards in the coming months. UBS doesn't think the Frankfurt-based lender will have sufficient data to justify a rate hike by the time of the April meeting. It also points to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel, which suggest that the central will take its time before deciding on rate hikes. UBS expects two rate hikes, one in June and one in September, with a pause in July. Much depends on the Middle East, UBS stresses, where a durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to lower energy prices and grant the ECB more time before deciding on rate hikes. RBC Capital Markets looks for two quarter point rate hikes in September and December bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. RBC thinks the ECB can "afford to take the time to wait until it has plenty of data to assess the medium-term impacts of inflation, at which point it will be clear there is an element of persistence."
THURSDAY: Euro area inflation is expected to push higher in April with energy inflation hitting double-digits amid surging prices. Goldman expects euro area headline harmonised index of consumer prices, a standardised measure of inflation used across the European Union, to increase to 3.1% on-year in April from 2.6% in the 12 months to March. Core HICP inflation is projected to move sideways at 2.30% on-year in the 'flash' release, Goldman forecasts. Energy inflation will likely increase further to 10.7% on-year from 5.1% in March, Goldman says, although uncertainty "remains high". "The surge in energy prices in light of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had a notable impact on our headline inflation forecast," Goldman says. It sees headline inflation, averaging 2.8% on-year in in 2026, peaking at 3.2% in the second quarter, before easing to 2.1% on-year in 2027.
THURSDAY: The changing of the guard will be in the spotlight at Apple following the news that Chief Executive Tim Cook is stepping down. Cook will become executive chair, with current senior vice president of Hardware Engineering John Ternus to take charge of the iPhone maker from the start of September. Cook has been at the helm for 15 years, after succeeding Steve Jobs. The news comes ahead of results which should benefit from ongoing strength in iPhone sales, Services and a benefit from foreign exchange. In January, the Cupertino, California-based technology firm hailed "unprecedented" demand for the iPhone 17, and gave an optimistic outlook, despite flagging concerns around supply constraints and rising memory costs. For the March quarter, the second of Apple's financial year, consensus looks for revenue of USD109 billion and EPS of USD1.93. There have been concerns that rising memory costs will dent margins but Goldman Sachs thinks these worries are "overly pessimistic." Goldman looks for outperformance on iPhone revenue, Mac revenue, and gross margins and thinks the results will also be flattered by favourable forex, as well as strong underlying Services revenue growth. Goldman forecast iPhone revenue of USD56.6 billion, up 21% on-year, above consensus of USD55.6 billion, Services revenue up 14% on-year, in-line with both consensus and company guidance, and gross margins of 49.0% versus consensus of 48.3%. Bank of America expects Apple to guide third quarter revenue growth of 10% to 15% on-year and GM range of 47% to 48%, with revenue and EPS of USD106 billion and USD1.82 versus USD103 billion and USD1.74 consensus. Taking a less optimistic near-term view, Jefferies expect a slight miss in the March quarter. The broker thinks a strong sell through may lead to "overly optimistic" consensus for the quarter while it forecasts lower gross margins on iPhone due to higher memory costs. TD Cowen expects an in line quarter, with a strong iPhone 17 cycle and new MacBook Neo driving share gains. Apple's "ability to mitigate memory cost inflation and launch a compelling new AI Siri will be next catalysts to watch," TD Cowen says.
THURSDAY: Attention at Eli Lilly results will likely focus on the performance and outlook of weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. JPMorgan forecast total first quarter sales of USD17.6 billion, versus USD17.8 billion consensus, and EPS of USD7.26, roughly in line with consensus. JPM's forecast reflects above consensus glucagon-like peptide-1 sales and below consensus non-GLP-1 results with overall sales growing 38% year-on-year and GLP-1 sales up 70%. Mounjaro international sales are again a potential source of upside in the quarter, in JPM's view, now that it has launched in all major markets. For 2026, JPM estimates sales of USD82.4 billion and EPS of USD34.59. JPM sees the ramp of Mounjaro internationally continuing to surpass expectations, and thinks Zepbound's ramp into Medicare beginning in July could be an additional source of upside to estimates. The launch of oral weight loss drug Foundayo is another potential upside driver, JPM says. Goldman Sachs says monitoring the Foundayo launch seems likely to be the key sentiment driver for Eli Lilly shares in the coming weeks/months.
THURSDAY: There will be plenty to chew when Unilever reports first quarter numbers after the market gave an initially lukewarm reaction to its deal with McCormick & Co. The consumer goods company, which owns brands such as Lipton tea and Hellmann's mayonnaise, plans to combine its Foods business with McCormick in a deal valuing the unit at USD44.8 billion. The deal is not expected to close until mid-2027 and comes soon after the Magnum Ice Cream Co spin-off, another lengthy process. For the quarter, JPMorgan expects organic sales growth 3.8% with 2.0% volumes and 1.8% pricing. JPM projects Europe organic sales down 0.5%, North America up 2.5% and Latin America up 5.5%. By business group, JPM sees growth led by Beauty & Wellbeing, Home Care and Personal Care (all up 4.0% to 4.5%), with Foods slower at 2.5%. Citi expects volume headwinds to result in slower organic sales growth of 3.5%.
FRIDAY: NatWest is the last of the three domestic UK banks to update on its progress in the first three months of 2026. UBS expects the focus to be on how a higher-rates-lower-growth outlook impacts 2026 guidance. In addition, UBS expects questions on the impact of macro on loan demand and credit quality, and sees a drop in customer deposits. The broker also expects a market focus on other potential M&A, after the Evelyn Partners deal. Company-compiled consensus looks for total income of GBP4.31 billion, including net interest income of GBP3.41 billion, and pretax profit of GBP2.04 billion. Bank of America thinks income guidance for the year, which already feels "conservative" at the full year, should see more upside from the current rate environment given its rate sensitivity and cautious assumptions. JPMorgan agrees and sees potential for the outlook to be raised. Citigroup expects 2026 targets to be retained, but in time expects these to be "comfortably surpassed", helped by higher rates than company has assumed.
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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