WEEK AHEAD: US-China summit as energy costs drive US inflation higher
8 maj, 13:21
(Alliance News) - The first US presidential visit to China since 2017, US inflation figures, a budget in Australia and UK economic growth data will help frame the performance of financial markets.
While the earnings season contains results from Cisco in the US, Allianz, Bayer and Siemens in Europe, and Aviva and Vodafone in the UK.
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Monday 11 May
09:30 CST China CPI
09:30 CST China PPI
10:00 EDT US existing home sales
Tuesday 12 May
10:30 AEST Australia consumer confidence
11:30 AEST Australia business confidence
11:00 CEST eurozone ZEW economic sentiment survey
08:00 CEST Germany CPI
11:00 CEST Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey
01:01 IST Ireland construction PMI
10:00 CEST Italy industrial production
08:30 JST Japan household spending
11:30 SAST South Africa unemployment
13:00 SAST South Africa manufacturing production
08:30 CEST Switzerland producer and import prices
00:01 BST UK BRC retail sales monitor
08:30 EDT US CPI
Wednesday 13 May
11:30 AEST Australia wage price index
11:00 CEST eurozone industrial production
11:00 CEST eurozone GDP
11:00 CEST eurozone employment change
07:30 CEST France unemployment
08:45 CEST France CPI
14:45 CEST Germany current account
08:30 EDT US PPI
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
Thursday 14 May
11:00 AEST Australia consumer inflation expectations
11:00 IST Ireland CPI
11:00 IST Ireland harmonised CPI
11:30 SAST South Africa mining production
09:00 CEST Spain CPI
00:01 BST UK house price balance
07:00 BST UK GDP
07:00 BST UK trade balance
07:00 BST UK industrial production
07:00 BST UK manufacturing production
08:30 EDT US retail sales
08:30 EDT US export and import prices
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
Friday 15 May
08:15 EDT Canada housing starts
08:30 EDT Canada manufacturing sales
17:00 CST China current account
08:00 CEST Germany wholesale prices
11:00 IST Ireland trade balance
10:00 CEST Italy CPI
08:50 JST Japan PPI
08:30 CEST Switzerland industrial production
08:30 EDT US New York empire state manufacturing index
09:15 EDT US industrial production
Top company events:
Monday 11 May
Aurubis AG - half year results
Barrick Mining Corp - Q1 results
Compass Group PLC - half year results
Convatec Group PLC - trading statement
Convatec Group PLC - AGM
Fox Corp - Q3 results
GEA Group AG - Q1 results
Hannover Re SE - Q1 results
Hochtief AG - Q1 results
Hypoport SE - Q1 results
K+S AG - Q1 results
Victrex PLC - half year results
Tuesday 12 May
Bayer AG - Q1 results
Fujifilm Holdings Corp - full year results
Greggs PLC - trading statement
IMI PLC - trading statement
Imperial Brands PLC - half year results
Inwit Spa - Q1 results
IONOS Group SE - Q1 results
JD.com Inc - Q1 results
Jenoptik AG - Q1 results
Munich Re AG - Q1 results
Panasonic Corp - full year results
Shiseido Co Ltd - Q1 results
Siemens Energy AG - half year results
Stroer SE & Co KGaA - Q1 results
TAG Immobilien AG - Q1 results
thyssenkrupp AG - half year results
United Internet AG - Q1 results
Vodafone Group PLC - full year results
Wednesday 13 May
Adecco Group AG - Q1 results
Allianz SE - Q1 results
Alstom SA - full year results
Aristocrat Leisure Ltd - half year results
Auto1 Group SE - Q1 results
Avon Technologies PLC - half year results
Brenntag SE - Q1 results
Buzzi Spa - trading statement
Cisco Systems Inc - Q3 results
Deutsche Boerse AG AGM
Deutsche Telekom AG - Q1 results
E.ON SE - Q1 results
Formycon AG - Q1 results
Hera Spa - Q1 results
LEG Immobilien SE - Q1 results
Merck KGaA - Q1 results
Nissan Motor Co Ltd - full year results
Recordati Spa - Q1 results
RWE AG - Q1 results
Snam Spa - Q1 results
SoftBank Group Corp - full year results
Spirax Group PLC - trading statement
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd - full year results
Talanx AG - Q1 results
TP ICAP Group PLC - trading statement
Tui AG - half year results
Verbund AG - Q1 results
Zurich Insurance Group AG - Q1 results
Thursday 14 May
3i Group PLC - full year results
A2a Spa - Q1 results
Applied Materials Inc - half year results
Auction Technology Group PLC - half year results
Aviva PLC - trading statement
Bridgestone Corp - Q1 results
Burberry Group PLC - preliminary results
Daifuku Co Ltd - Q1 results
Grainger PLC - half year results
ITV PLC - trading statement
National Grid PLC - full year results
Persol Holdings Co Ltd - full year results
Premier Foods PLC - preliminary results
Singapore Airlines Ltd - full year results
Sumitomo Chemical Co Ltd - full year results
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc - full year results
Telefonica SA - Q1 results
United Utilities Group PLC - full year results
Watches of Switzerland Group PLC - trading statement
Friday 15 May
freenet AG - Q1 results
Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd - full year results
Grafton Group PLC - trading statement
Interpump Group Spa - Q1 results
Japan Post Bank Co Ltd - full year results
Mizuho Financial Group Inc - full year results
Nagarro SE - Q1 results
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Ltd - Q1 results
Nissan Chemical Corp - full year results
Unipol Spa - Q1 results
MONDAY: Half-year results from Compass are expected to show continued momentum although analysts suggest US snowstorms could slightly tame headline growth in the second quarter of its financial year. For the six months to March, Deutsche Bank forecast the contract caterer will report USD24.7 billion revenue (in line with consensus), up 12% on-year or 7.7% like-for-like (consensus 7.0%), driven by forex and acquisitions, USD1.82 billion underlying earnings before interest and tax, up 12% on-year, and slightly above USD1.81 billion consensus. Net result is forecast at USD1.2 billion, up 12% on-year, in line with consensus. JPMorgan looks for second quarter organic growth of 6.9%, slowing from 7.3% in the first quarter, implying first half growth of 7.0%, and expects management to retain guidance. No share buy back is forecast. Bank of America points out Compass has "zero" exposure to the Middle East and is well positioned in a higher inflation environment. BofA explains two-thirds of contracts are cost-plus or P&L-based, with pricing flexibility, while the rest incorporate a repricing mechanism.
TUESDAY: Citi says Australia's financial 2026-2027 federal budget will not be the one Treasurer Jim Chalmers was expecting to deliver only two months ago, noting it will be "shaped by an energy price and inflation shock, leading to pressure for ongoing household support". Citi expects a more "interventionist" industry policy, including a "significant" fuel security package and notes a "small, temporary household tax cut has also been speculated." Citi says defence will likely be a "winner" while changes to capital gains and negative gearing tax concessions are mooted for investor assets. Goldman Sachs points to reports suggesting the federal government is mulling significant changes to the tax treatment of investments, with the most material change the touted removal of the 50% capital gains tax discount for assets held for more than 12 months. Goldman says this would move Australia from its current competitive position on CGT to possibly becoming the nation with the "highest taxation on gains globally". Goldman says such a move could impact certain equities, noting it could significantly increase the cost of capital for 'growth' stocks, while making 'yield' names a little more attractive.
TUESDAY: Higher energy prices are expected to spark a further acceleration in US inflation figures for April. Bloomberg consensus forecast April's headline consumer price index to rise 0.7% on-month from March, taking year-over-year growth to 3.8%, picking up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food costs, is seen ticking up to an annual rate of 2.7% in April from 2.6% in March. Citi analyst Veronica Clark expects headline inflation to reflect a further 3.9% increase in energy costs, after an 11% spike in March, with airfares climbing 4%. Higher core inflation mainly reflects increased shelter costs, due to residual issues resulting from the government shutdown in October, Clark says. But while core inflation data will likely remain "uncomfortably strong" over the next two months, Clark expects slowing in June, July, and August data released before the September interest rate decision, allowing Fed officials to cut rates as labour market data weakens.
TUESDAY: Vodafone's share price is enjoying something of a renaissance under Chief Executive Margherita Della Valle, rising 67% in the last 12 months. The CEO, who took charge in 2022, has acted to reshape the Berkshire, England-based telecommunications provider and tackle its sizeable debt pile. Richard Hunter, head of markets, interactive investor explains: "Vodafone had quite simply been fighting fires on too many fronts while dealing with an increasingly onerous debt burden, leading to the need for a significant transformation." Hunter says what is now emerging is a "smaller and less geographically diverse, but more focused operation". He points to asset sales in Italy and Spain, as well as a reduction of its stake in Vantage Towers, which has helped reduce net debt. However, debt is still forecast at EUR25.48 billion at the year-end which Hunter notes remains an "ominous weight" on the group. Company compiled consensus forecasts Vodafone will report adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation and after leases of EUR11.48 billion in the financial year to March, adjusted Ebit of EUR4.01 billion, adjusted net income of EUR2.11 billion, adjusted EPS of EUR9.23 and a dividend per share of EUR4.61. Free cash flow is projected of EUR1.57 billion.
TUESDAY: Bayer has been in an acquisitive mood ahead of releasing first quarter results, striking a USD2.5 billion acquisition of San Francisco, California-based biotechnology firm Perfuse Therapeutics. The deal adds to a product pipeline which Chief Executive Bill Anderson recently called "more promising than perhaps ever before". For the first quarter, Deutsche Bank Research forecast the Leverkusen, Germany-based life sciences company will deliver organic sales growth of 3.6% on-year, driven by Crop Science, offsetting a flattish performance in Pharma and modest growth in Consumer Health. Deutsche expects adjusted Ebitda to decrease by 1.6% on-year as a "significant" year-on-year decline in Pharma of 17% and forex headwinds should have been partially mitigated by growth in Crop Science. Deutsche says Bayer's direct exposure to the Middle East is "very limited", and its end markets are "relatively resilient". "While we anticipate growing energy & input cost headwinds for crop protection, this is relatively small as a % of group and energy is well hedged," Deutsche adds. Consensus looks for first quarter revenue of EUR13.44 billion, Ebitda of EUR3.93 billion and core EPS of EUR2.21. Guidance for group sales growth of 0% to 3% at constant currency is likely to be retained, analysts think.
WEDNESDAY: Shares in Allianz have endured a choppy year with a strong operational performance clouded by private credit, autonomous vehicle and AI distribution disruption debates. But Goldman Sachs thinks private credit risks appear "very manageable" at less than 1% of market value, while the technology debates could pivot, "from being seen as a risk to an opportunity." Goldman looks for greater insight on this at the June 'Inside Allianz' event. For the first quarter, company consensus projects the Munich-based financial services company will report operating profit of EUR4.37 billion and a solvency II ratio of 218%. In Property & Casualty, a combined operating ratio of 91.7% is forecast, while in Asset Management, net flows of EUR28 billion are expected. In February, Allianz forecast operating profit of EUR17.4 billion in 2026, plus or minus EUR1 billion, and announced a new share buyback of EUR2.5 billion.
WEDNESDAY: UBS expects Cisco to report high-end revenue driven by data centre switching and demand for its Campus networking architecture. But higher component costs will cap gross margin despite a series of price increases over the past three to six months that UBS estimates have increased average selling prices by low double digits. UBS looks for the San Jose, California-based technology company to report first quarter revenue of USD15.53 billion, in line with Visible Alpha consensus of USD15.55 billion, and towards the top-end of USD15.4 billion to USD15.6 billion guidance. VA consensus projects non-GAAP EPS of USD1.03 and gross margin of 66.2% for the quarter. For the financial year, VA consensus eyes revenue of USD61.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of USD41.5. For the second quarter, UBS expects Cisco to guide revenue to a range of USD15.90 billion to USD16.10 billion, above its USD15.87 billion estimate. Owing to higher component costs, UBS expects the company to guide for a "flattish" gross margin quarter-on-quarter.
WEDNESDAY: Analysts think Siemens heads into its second quarter results with solid order momentum but note this could be knocked off course by the Middle East conflict. The Munich-based energy company is forecast to report revenue of EUR19.14 billion, including sales of EUR18.64 billion in its Industrial business, group orders of EUR21.37 billion, Industrial business earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of EUR2.91 billion at an Ebita margin of 15.6%. The direct exposure to the Middle East, at around 3% of sales, is small, but analysts note the business could be hit by any follow-on impact on the global economy. JPMorgan thinks guidance will be maintained at this stage, given the Middle East, although it sees scope for a potential follow-on buyback announcement. Bank of America says the "key" focus will be forward‑looking commentary given the Middle East conflict. Risks will rise if the situation drags, it adds, with potential downside to industrial production.
THURSDAY: After the surprise strength of the February monthly UK GDP release it looks as if the UK economy will get the year off to the strong start that has been a feature of recent years, according to RBC Capital Markets. RBC notes in 2024 first quarter GDP was up 0.8% quarter-on-quarter before tailing off later in the year, while in 2025 first quarter GDP was 0.7% higher on-quarter, before averaging 0.1% on-quarter in the second half of the year. "This could be coincidence, or it may reflect issues with the seasonal adjustment deployed by the ONS," RBC suggests. Bank of America expects March GDP to contract by 0.2% month-on-month, leaving first quarter growth at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. For March, BofA expects modest expansion in services at 0.1% on-month, partly offset by a contraction in industrial production of 0.5% on-month. RBC goes for 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth, assuming no revisions.
THURSDAY: JPMorgan forecast Aviva will report total group new business sales of GBP11.24 billion in the first quarter of 2026, down slightly from GBP11.32 billion the year prior. Growth in the insurer's Wealth business is likely to be offset by a "considerable" drop in life new business sales, due to exceptional bulk annuity volumes. The broker targets a total undiscounted combined ratio of just above 94% in the quarter, bearing in mind this is typically a "light quarter" for weather and large loss events in Canada, but with more elevated potential weather losses in the UK. In addition, JPM expects commentary on pricing to suggest a positive inflection in retail pricing in the UK, but with rating adjustments still a little below inflation trends. In Canada, JPM expects to see the positive impact of a positive rating environment in retail lines. In commercial, the picture is likely to be mixed by line of business, the broker thinks. General Insurance gross written premium growth will benefit from the Direct Line deal, JPM adds. The broker forecast a solvency II ratio of 173%, down 7 percentage points from 180% at the end of 2025. Ahead of the statement, Jefferies downgraded Aviva to 'hold' from 'buy', noting the risk/reward looks more balanced. Jefferies believes valuation "seems fair" accounting for Direct Line integration risk and pension risk transfer competition/exposure. The broker thinks the shares look "interesting" from an income perspective, particularly for UK investors, noting average all-in yields are around 9% per year.
THURSDAY: Shares in Burberry, famed for its trench coats and signature beige check pattern, have had a volatile run in the past few years, trading below 600p each in 2024 after swapping hands at more than 2,500p the year before. But Chief Executive Joshua Schulman has helped "drive a modest recovery in the business," analysts at AJ Bell say, noting the return to a "more comfortable fit of so-called 'everyday luxury'". For its financial year to March, the luxury goods maker is forecast to report revenue of GBP2.43 billion, flat year-on-year, or 2% higher on a like-for-like basis, according to company compiled consensus. Adjusted operating profit is projected of GBP154 million, with adjusted diluted EPS of 20.8 pence. For the fourth quarter, consensus forecast retail sales will grow 5% like-for-like. Analysts expect a sequential improvement in Greater China, better growth in Americas, see some impact from the Middle East conflict, and a growing drag from tourist spend, which accounts for around 45% of European sales.
THURSDAY: National Grid's recently announced capital expenditure plans will likely provide much of the focus at full-year results which are expected to see a jump in operating profits. In March, the London-based electricity and gas utility, which operates the UK's electricity transmission network, announced cumulative capital investment of at least GBP70 billion over the next five years. Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown says National Grid is "looking to plant itself at the heart of the electric revolution". He pointed out that National Grid's revenue is linked to the value of its asset base, so "this step up in investment should help support high single-digit annual earnings growth over the period." In April, the FTSE 100 listing said it was performing in line with expectations although it flagged a 1 pence per share hit to underlying earnings per share, reflecting the recognition of customer refund charges. JPMorgan forecast revenue will drop 22% to GBP14.35 billion from GBP18.38 billion the year prior, with adjusted operating profit of GBP5.81 billion, up from GBP5.43 billion, and adjusted EPS of 77.41 pence, rising 5.5% from 73.40p on-year.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The first US presidential visit to China since 2017 comes at a crucial time, with tensions caused by last year's tariffs set against the current backdrop of the Middle East conflict. The US has confirmed the two-day summit to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, with US President Donald Trump expected to be accompanied by business leaders. CNBC says Trump will be accompanied by Boeing Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg, with Citigroup Jane Fraser also invited. Other reports suggest executives from Nvidia and Exxon could be on the plane to China. Citigroup thinks the summit could set the stage for a series of high-level exchanges throughout the year, including a potential reciprocal visit by China's leader. While holding "modest" expectations for the summit, Citi thinks it's "plausible" that the summit may accelerate a resolution of the Middle East conflict. Citi does not expect any major breakthroughs in US-China relations. "Preparatory groundwork appears to have been limited," Citi says, while a potential reciprocal visit by President Xi could be a "more practical venue for any major dealmaking, as it would allow for more thorough preparation." Citi thinks the economic agenda should reinforce short-term stabilisation in bilateral relations, expects both sides will seek to "avoid further escalation, after the prohibitive tariffs seen last May."
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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WEEK AHEAD: US-China summit as energy costs drive US inflation higher
8 maj, 13:21
(Alliance News) - The first US presidential visit to China since 2017, US inflation figures, a budget in Australia and UK economic growth data will help frame the performance of financial markets.
While the earnings season contains results from Cisco in the US, Allianz, Bayer and Siemens in Europe, and Aviva and Vodafone in the UK.
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Monday 11 May
09:30 CST China CPI
09:30 CST China PPI
10:00 EDT US existing home sales
Tuesday 12 May
10:30 AEST Australia consumer confidence
11:30 AEST Australia business confidence
11:00 CEST eurozone ZEW economic sentiment survey
08:00 CEST Germany CPI
11:00 CEST Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey
01:01 IST Ireland construction PMI
10:00 CEST Italy industrial production
08:30 JST Japan household spending
11:30 SAST South Africa unemployment
13:00 SAST South Africa manufacturing production
08:30 CEST Switzerland producer and import prices
00:01 BST UK BRC retail sales monitor
08:30 EDT US CPI
Wednesday 13 May
11:30 AEST Australia wage price index
11:00 CEST eurozone industrial production
11:00 CEST eurozone GDP
11:00 CEST eurozone employment change
07:30 CEST France unemployment
08:45 CEST France CPI
14:45 CEST Germany current account
08:30 EDT US PPI
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
Thursday 14 May
11:00 AEST Australia consumer inflation expectations
11:00 IST Ireland CPI
11:00 IST Ireland harmonised CPI
11:30 SAST South Africa mining production
09:00 CEST Spain CPI
00:01 BST UK house price balance
07:00 BST UK GDP
07:00 BST UK trade balance
07:00 BST UK industrial production
07:00 BST UK manufacturing production
08:30 EDT US retail sales
08:30 EDT US export and import prices
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
Friday 15 May
08:15 EDT Canada housing starts
08:30 EDT Canada manufacturing sales
17:00 CST China current account
08:00 CEST Germany wholesale prices
11:00 IST Ireland trade balance
10:00 CEST Italy CPI
08:50 JST Japan PPI
08:30 CEST Switzerland industrial production
08:30 EDT US New York empire state manufacturing index
09:15 EDT US industrial production
Top company events:
Monday 11 May
Aurubis AG - half year results
Barrick Mining Corp - Q1 results
Compass Group PLC - half year results
Convatec Group PLC - trading statement
Convatec Group PLC - AGM
Fox Corp - Q3 results
GEA Group AG - Q1 results
Hannover Re SE - Q1 results
Hochtief AG - Q1 results
Hypoport SE - Q1 results
K+S AG - Q1 results
Victrex PLC - half year results
Tuesday 12 May
Bayer AG - Q1 results
Fujifilm Holdings Corp - full year results
Greggs PLC - trading statement
IMI PLC - trading statement
Imperial Brands PLC - half year results
Inwit Spa - Q1 results
IONOS Group SE - Q1 results
JD.com Inc - Q1 results
Jenoptik AG - Q1 results
Munich Re AG - Q1 results
Panasonic Corp - full year results
Shiseido Co Ltd - Q1 results
Siemens Energy AG - half year results
Stroer SE & Co KGaA - Q1 results
TAG Immobilien AG - Q1 results
thyssenkrupp AG - half year results
United Internet AG - Q1 results
Vodafone Group PLC - full year results
Wednesday 13 May
Adecco Group AG - Q1 results
Allianz SE - Q1 results
Alstom SA - full year results
Aristocrat Leisure Ltd - half year results
Auto1 Group SE - Q1 results
Avon Technologies PLC - half year results
Brenntag SE - Q1 results
Buzzi Spa - trading statement
Cisco Systems Inc - Q3 results
Deutsche Boerse AG AGM
Deutsche Telekom AG - Q1 results
E.ON SE - Q1 results
Formycon AG - Q1 results
Hera Spa - Q1 results
LEG Immobilien SE - Q1 results
Merck KGaA - Q1 results
Nissan Motor Co Ltd - full year results
Recordati Spa - Q1 results
RWE AG - Q1 results
Snam Spa - Q1 results
SoftBank Group Corp - full year results
Spirax Group PLC - trading statement
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd - full year results
Talanx AG - Q1 results
TP ICAP Group PLC - trading statement
Tui AG - half year results
Verbund AG - Q1 results
Zurich Insurance Group AG - Q1 results
Thursday 14 May
3i Group PLC - full year results
A2a Spa - Q1 results
Applied Materials Inc - half year results
Auction Technology Group PLC - half year results
Aviva PLC - trading statement
Bridgestone Corp - Q1 results
Burberry Group PLC - preliminary results
Daifuku Co Ltd - Q1 results
Grainger PLC - half year results
ITV PLC - trading statement
National Grid PLC - full year results
Persol Holdings Co Ltd - full year results
Premier Foods PLC - preliminary results
Singapore Airlines Ltd - full year results
Sumitomo Chemical Co Ltd - full year results
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc - full year results
Telefonica SA - Q1 results
United Utilities Group PLC - full year results
Watches of Switzerland Group PLC - trading statement
Friday 15 May
freenet AG - Q1 results
Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd - full year results
Grafton Group PLC - trading statement
Interpump Group Spa - Q1 results
Japan Post Bank Co Ltd - full year results
Mizuho Financial Group Inc - full year results
Nagarro SE - Q1 results
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Ltd - Q1 results
Nissan Chemical Corp - full year results
Unipol Spa - Q1 results
MONDAY: Half-year results from Compass are expected to show continued momentum although analysts suggest US snowstorms could slightly tame headline growth in the second quarter of its financial year. For the six months to March, Deutsche Bank forecast the contract caterer will report USD24.7 billion revenue (in line with consensus), up 12% on-year or 7.7% like-for-like (consensus 7.0%), driven by forex and acquisitions, USD1.82 billion underlying earnings before interest and tax, up 12% on-year, and slightly above USD1.81 billion consensus. Net result is forecast at USD1.2 billion, up 12% on-year, in line with consensus. JPMorgan looks for second quarter organic growth of 6.9%, slowing from 7.3% in the first quarter, implying first half growth of 7.0%, and expects management to retain guidance. No share buy back is forecast. Bank of America points out Compass has "zero" exposure to the Middle East and is well positioned in a higher inflation environment. BofA explains two-thirds of contracts are cost-plus or P&L-based, with pricing flexibility, while the rest incorporate a repricing mechanism.
TUESDAY: Citi says Australia's financial 2026-2027 federal budget will not be the one Treasurer Jim Chalmers was expecting to deliver only two months ago, noting it will be "shaped by an energy price and inflation shock, leading to pressure for ongoing household support". Citi expects a more "interventionist" industry policy, including a "significant" fuel security package and notes a "small, temporary household tax cut has also been speculated." Citi says defence will likely be a "winner" while changes to capital gains and negative gearing tax concessions are mooted for investor assets. Goldman Sachs points to reports suggesting the federal government is mulling significant changes to the tax treatment of investments, with the most material change the touted removal of the 50% capital gains tax discount for assets held for more than 12 months. Goldman says this would move Australia from its current competitive position on CGT to possibly becoming the nation with the "highest taxation on gains globally". Goldman says such a move could impact certain equities, noting it could significantly increase the cost of capital for 'growth' stocks, while making 'yield' names a little more attractive.
TUESDAY: Higher energy prices are expected to spark a further acceleration in US inflation figures for April. Bloomberg consensus forecast April's headline consumer price index to rise 0.7% on-month from March, taking year-over-year growth to 3.8%, picking up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food costs, is seen ticking up to an annual rate of 2.7% in April from 2.6% in March. Citi analyst Veronica Clark expects headline inflation to reflect a further 3.9% increase in energy costs, after an 11% spike in March, with airfares climbing 4%. Higher core inflation mainly reflects increased shelter costs, due to residual issues resulting from the government shutdown in October, Clark says. But while core inflation data will likely remain "uncomfortably strong" over the next two months, Clark expects slowing in June, July, and August data released before the September interest rate decision, allowing Fed officials to cut rates as labour market data weakens.
TUESDAY: Vodafone's share price is enjoying something of a renaissance under Chief Executive Margherita Della Valle, rising 67% in the last 12 months. The CEO, who took charge in 2022, has acted to reshape the Berkshire, England-based telecommunications provider and tackle its sizeable debt pile. Richard Hunter, head of markets, interactive investor explains: "Vodafone had quite simply been fighting fires on too many fronts while dealing with an increasingly onerous debt burden, leading to the need for a significant transformation." Hunter says what is now emerging is a "smaller and less geographically diverse, but more focused operation". He points to asset sales in Italy and Spain, as well as a reduction of its stake in Vantage Towers, which has helped reduce net debt. However, debt is still forecast at EUR25.48 billion at the year-end which Hunter notes remains an "ominous weight" on the group. Company compiled consensus forecasts Vodafone will report adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation and after leases of EUR11.48 billion in the financial year to March, adjusted Ebit of EUR4.01 billion, adjusted net income of EUR2.11 billion, adjusted EPS of EUR9.23 and a dividend per share of EUR4.61. Free cash flow is projected of EUR1.57 billion.
TUESDAY: Bayer has been in an acquisitive mood ahead of releasing first quarter results, striking a USD2.5 billion acquisition of San Francisco, California-based biotechnology firm Perfuse Therapeutics. The deal adds to a product pipeline which Chief Executive Bill Anderson recently called "more promising than perhaps ever before". For the first quarter, Deutsche Bank Research forecast the Leverkusen, Germany-based life sciences company will deliver organic sales growth of 3.6% on-year, driven by Crop Science, offsetting a flattish performance in Pharma and modest growth in Consumer Health. Deutsche expects adjusted Ebitda to decrease by 1.6% on-year as a "significant" year-on-year decline in Pharma of 17% and forex headwinds should have been partially mitigated by growth in Crop Science. Deutsche says Bayer's direct exposure to the Middle East is "very limited", and its end markets are "relatively resilient". "While we anticipate growing energy & input cost headwinds for crop protection, this is relatively small as a % of group and energy is well hedged," Deutsche adds. Consensus looks for first quarter revenue of EUR13.44 billion, Ebitda of EUR3.93 billion and core EPS of EUR2.21. Guidance for group sales growth of 0% to 3% at constant currency is likely to be retained, analysts think.
WEDNESDAY: Shares in Allianz have endured a choppy year with a strong operational performance clouded by private credit, autonomous vehicle and AI distribution disruption debates. But Goldman Sachs thinks private credit risks appear "very manageable" at less than 1% of market value, while the technology debates could pivot, "from being seen as a risk to an opportunity." Goldman looks for greater insight on this at the June 'Inside Allianz' event. For the first quarter, company consensus projects the Munich-based financial services company will report operating profit of EUR4.37 billion and a solvency II ratio of 218%. In Property & Casualty, a combined operating ratio of 91.7% is forecast, while in Asset Management, net flows of EUR28 billion are expected. In February, Allianz forecast operating profit of EUR17.4 billion in 2026, plus or minus EUR1 billion, and announced a new share buyback of EUR2.5 billion.
WEDNESDAY: UBS expects Cisco to report high-end revenue driven by data centre switching and demand for its Campus networking architecture. But higher component costs will cap gross margin despite a series of price increases over the past three to six months that UBS estimates have increased average selling prices by low double digits. UBS looks for the San Jose, California-based technology company to report first quarter revenue of USD15.53 billion, in line with Visible Alpha consensus of USD15.55 billion, and towards the top-end of USD15.4 billion to USD15.6 billion guidance. VA consensus projects non-GAAP EPS of USD1.03 and gross margin of 66.2% for the quarter. For the financial year, VA consensus eyes revenue of USD61.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of USD41.5. For the second quarter, UBS expects Cisco to guide revenue to a range of USD15.90 billion to USD16.10 billion, above its USD15.87 billion estimate. Owing to higher component costs, UBS expects the company to guide for a "flattish" gross margin quarter-on-quarter.
WEDNESDAY: Analysts think Siemens heads into its second quarter results with solid order momentum but note this could be knocked off course by the Middle East conflict. The Munich-based energy company is forecast to report revenue of EUR19.14 billion, including sales of EUR18.64 billion in its Industrial business, group orders of EUR21.37 billion, Industrial business earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of EUR2.91 billion at an Ebita margin of 15.6%. The direct exposure to the Middle East, at around 3% of sales, is small, but analysts note the business could be hit by any follow-on impact on the global economy. JPMorgan thinks guidance will be maintained at this stage, given the Middle East, although it sees scope for a potential follow-on buyback announcement. Bank of America says the "key" focus will be forward‑looking commentary given the Middle East conflict. Risks will rise if the situation drags, it adds, with potential downside to industrial production.
THURSDAY: After the surprise strength of the February monthly UK GDP release it looks as if the UK economy will get the year off to the strong start that has been a feature of recent years, according to RBC Capital Markets. RBC notes in 2024 first quarter GDP was up 0.8% quarter-on-quarter before tailing off later in the year, while in 2025 first quarter GDP was 0.7% higher on-quarter, before averaging 0.1% on-quarter in the second half of the year. "This could be coincidence, or it may reflect issues with the seasonal adjustment deployed by the ONS," RBC suggests. Bank of America expects March GDP to contract by 0.2% month-on-month, leaving first quarter growth at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. For March, BofA expects modest expansion in services at 0.1% on-month, partly offset by a contraction in industrial production of 0.5% on-month. RBC goes for 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth, assuming no revisions.
THURSDAY: JPMorgan forecast Aviva will report total group new business sales of GBP11.24 billion in the first quarter of 2026, down slightly from GBP11.32 billion the year prior. Growth in the insurer's Wealth business is likely to be offset by a "considerable" drop in life new business sales, due to exceptional bulk annuity volumes. The broker targets a total undiscounted combined ratio of just above 94% in the quarter, bearing in mind this is typically a "light quarter" for weather and large loss events in Canada, but with more elevated potential weather losses in the UK. In addition, JPM expects commentary on pricing to suggest a positive inflection in retail pricing in the UK, but with rating adjustments still a little below inflation trends. In Canada, JPM expects to see the positive impact of a positive rating environment in retail lines. In commercial, the picture is likely to be mixed by line of business, the broker thinks. General Insurance gross written premium growth will benefit from the Direct Line deal, JPM adds. The broker forecast a solvency II ratio of 173%, down 7 percentage points from 180% at the end of 2025. Ahead of the statement, Jefferies downgraded Aviva to 'hold' from 'buy', noting the risk/reward looks more balanced. Jefferies believes valuation "seems fair" accounting for Direct Line integration risk and pension risk transfer competition/exposure. The broker thinks the shares look "interesting" from an income perspective, particularly for UK investors, noting average all-in yields are around 9% per year.
THURSDAY: Shares in Burberry, famed for its trench coats and signature beige check pattern, have had a volatile run in the past few years, trading below 600p each in 2024 after swapping hands at more than 2,500p the year before. But Chief Executive Joshua Schulman has helped "drive a modest recovery in the business," analysts at AJ Bell say, noting the return to a "more comfortable fit of so-called 'everyday luxury'". For its financial year to March, the luxury goods maker is forecast to report revenue of GBP2.43 billion, flat year-on-year, or 2% higher on a like-for-like basis, according to company compiled consensus. Adjusted operating profit is projected of GBP154 million, with adjusted diluted EPS of 20.8 pence. For the fourth quarter, consensus forecast retail sales will grow 5% like-for-like. Analysts expect a sequential improvement in Greater China, better growth in Americas, see some impact from the Middle East conflict, and a growing drag from tourist spend, which accounts for around 45% of European sales.
THURSDAY: National Grid's recently announced capital expenditure plans will likely provide much of the focus at full-year results which are expected to see a jump in operating profits. In March, the London-based electricity and gas utility, which operates the UK's electricity transmission network, announced cumulative capital investment of at least GBP70 billion over the next five years. Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown says National Grid is "looking to plant itself at the heart of the electric revolution". He pointed out that National Grid's revenue is linked to the value of its asset base, so "this step up in investment should help support high single-digit annual earnings growth over the period." In April, the FTSE 100 listing said it was performing in line with expectations although it flagged a 1 pence per share hit to underlying earnings per share, reflecting the recognition of customer refund charges. JPMorgan forecast revenue will drop 22% to GBP14.35 billion from GBP18.38 billion the year prior, with adjusted operating profit of GBP5.81 billion, up from GBP5.43 billion, and adjusted EPS of 77.41 pence, rising 5.5% from 73.40p on-year.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The first US presidential visit to China since 2017 comes at a crucial time, with tensions caused by last year's tariffs set against the current backdrop of the Middle East conflict. The US has confirmed the two-day summit to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, with US President Donald Trump expected to be accompanied by business leaders. CNBC says Trump will be accompanied by Boeing Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg, with Citigroup Jane Fraser also invited. Other reports suggest executives from Nvidia and Exxon could be on the plane to China. Citigroup thinks the summit could set the stage for a series of high-level exchanges throughout the year, including a potential reciprocal visit by China's leader. While holding "modest" expectations for the summit, Citi thinks it's "plausible" that the summit may accelerate a resolution of the Middle East conflict. Citi does not expect any major breakthroughs in US-China relations. "Preparatory groundwork appears to have been limited," Citi says, while a potential reciprocal visit by President Xi could be a "more practical venue for any major dealmaking, as it would allow for more thorough preparation." Citi thinks the economic agenda should reinforce short-term stabilisation in bilateral relations, expects both sides will seek to "avoid further escalation, after the prohibitive tariffs seen last May."
By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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