• Q2'25 numbers due on 24 July at 07:45 CET
• Adj. EBITDA flat, EBIT up 2% for '25e-'27e
• Unchanged story, fair value range up to SEK 190-270 (180-260)

Q2'25 expectations

Ahead of Q2, Medicover’s strong growth trajectory and expanding margins are expected to continue, supported by positive momentum across key regions. While we do not expect the full extent of the Q1 margin expansion to reoccur, we anticipate further improvements across both segments. We expect India to return to growth following short-term softness in Q1 and pencil in organic growth of 16% for HS, with an EBITDAaL margin of 11.4%, as units mature and scale improves. For DS, we see slightly softer development in Germany, where the full impact of reimbursement changes has yet to play out, and forecast organic growth of 16% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.1%, helped by improved operational leverage. At the Group level, we expect sales of EUR 597m, driven by 16% organic growth, with EBITDAaL of EUR 60m and adj. EBITDA of EUR 94m, for a margin of 15.7%.

Estimate changes

Reflecting minor FX headwinds and broadly unchanged operating assumptions, we leave our adj. EBITDA estimates largely unchanged. However, Q1 strength below EBITDA warrants some revisions to our D&A assumptions, and we revise EBIT by +2% for '25e-'27e. We continue to expect strong performance from Medicover across the different regions, and for margins to trend higher. As well, destabilisation in the German market could create new opportunities for Medicover by paving the way for future consolidation, although it introduces short-term uncertainty.

Fair value range up to SEK 190-270 (180-260)

Following the recent positive EPS revisions trend, we adjust our fair value range to SEK 190-270 (180-260) per share. We derive our fair value range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '25e EV/EBITDA of 11x-14x.