Medicover - Scaling with strength
24 juli, 18:00
|
India returns to growth and margins expandMedicover delivered another strong quarter, beating adj. EBITDA expectations by 7% vs. both ABGSCe and Infront consensus. Q2 sales were EUR 597m (0% vs. ABGSCe, 0% vs. cons.) with organic sales growth of +14% (ABGSCe +16%). Growth was driven by strong performance in Healthcare Services (+2% vs. ABGSCe on sales), supported by solid development in Poland and a return to double-digit growth in India (local currencies). Member growth was subdued due to political and macroeconomic factors in Poland and Romania, but these effects are expected to ease in H2 and are being offset by growth in other areas. Growth was slightly slower than expected in Diagnostic Services (-5% vs. ABGSCe on sales), as Germany saw slower growth following the recent pricing reforms. Nonetheless, both segments delivered improved margins following efficiency gains and improved scale, resulting in a Group adj. EBITDA margin of 16.9% (ABGSCe 15.7%, cons. 15.8%). Estimate changesWe turn slightly more positive on the sales growth outlook for Healthcare Services following the Q2 report. However, we are slightly more cautious on Diagnostic Services, negatively impacted by Germany in the short term. Nonetheless, as previously argued, the reforms could be beneficial in the medium term by opening up for consolidations. We turn more positive on margins as scale improves, which also brings improvements further down the P&L, and raise adj. EBITDA for '25e-'27e by 2-3%. Fair value range up to SEK 220-300 (190-270)On the back of our positive estimate revisions, we adjust our fair value range to SEK 220-300 (190-270). The range is derived from trading multiples of two peer groups, one of healthcare providers in developing markets and one in developed markets, alongside a DCF. It corresponds to a '25e EV/EBITDA of 11x-14x |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
Ämnen i artikeln
Medicover - Scaling with strength
24 juli, 18:00
|
India returns to growth and margins expandMedicover delivered another strong quarter, beating adj. EBITDA expectations by 7% vs. both ABGSCe and Infront consensus. Q2 sales were EUR 597m (0% vs. ABGSCe, 0% vs. cons.) with organic sales growth of +14% (ABGSCe +16%). Growth was driven by strong performance in Healthcare Services (+2% vs. ABGSCe on sales), supported by solid development in Poland and a return to double-digit growth in India (local currencies). Member growth was subdued due to political and macroeconomic factors in Poland and Romania, but these effects are expected to ease in H2 and are being offset by growth in other areas. Growth was slightly slower than expected in Diagnostic Services (-5% vs. ABGSCe on sales), as Germany saw slower growth following the recent pricing reforms. Nonetheless, both segments delivered improved margins following efficiency gains and improved scale, resulting in a Group adj. EBITDA margin of 16.9% (ABGSCe 15.7%, cons. 15.8%). Estimate changesWe turn slightly more positive on the sales growth outlook for Healthcare Services following the Q2 report. However, we are slightly more cautious on Diagnostic Services, negatively impacted by Germany in the short term. Nonetheless, as previously argued, the reforms could be beneficial in the medium term by opening up for consolidations. We turn more positive on margins as scale improves, which also brings improvements further down the P&L, and raise adj. EBITDA for '25e-'27e by 2-3%. Fair value range up to SEK 220-300 (190-270)On the back of our positive estimate revisions, we adjust our fair value range to SEK 220-300 (190-270). The range is derived from trading multiples of two peer groups, one of healthcare providers in developing markets and one in developed markets, alongside a DCF. It corresponds to a '25e EV/EBITDA of 11x-14x |
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
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