06:18 AM EDT, 05/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe updated its earnings projections for BMW Group (BMW.F), noting margin pressures from the production ramp-up of the German carmaker's Neue Klasse platform.

In a Thursday note, the research firm lowered its full-year sales forecast by 6.7% to account for expectations of flat year-on-year delivery growth. Analysts also reduced their EPS estimate for 2026 and 2027 by 12.7% and 15.7%, respectively, to 9.64 euros and 11.1 euros.

"This reflects our view that the group will see weaker than expected sales in China, despite management's more optimistic outlook, and that guidance assumes changes in tariffs, which we view as unlikely. Additional headwinds include higher depreciation from the Neue Klasse ramp-up, FX, raw material costs, lower income from used car remarketing, and measures to [stabilize] transaction prices in China. Cost-cutting efforts are unlikely to fully offset these pressures,"the note said.

Looking ahead to 2027, AlphaValue/Baader Europe reduced its sales assumption by 6.2% on an expected acceleration of the margin-dilutive battery electric vehicle mix, "continued softness"in China, and sustained tariff headwinds. The research firm still anticipates pressure from the Neue Klasse scale-up but at a "lesser extent"from the previous year.

The stock is rated at reduce, with a price target of 76 euros.