• Q1 likely solid, Q2 comments on activity in focus
• We expect FY guidance to be reiterated
• EBITA -3-4% '25-27e on neg. underlying/FX and pos. M&A

Focus on the US market and 2025 guidance

BTS delivers its Q1 report on 16 May, where we expect relatively solid momentum on the back of Accenture's Q2'25 report (corresponding to BTS' Q1), with 8.5% growth in constant currency, up from 8% in Q1'25. We estimate 4% organic growth in BTS, up from 0% in Q4, where mainly other markets disappointed. In terms of outlook for 2025, we will focus on comments in the US market from the start of Q2 and potential project delays in April due to the ongoing tariff discussions. Some companies may have paused projects, which could affect BTS negatively. However, we expect the FY guidance of "higher EBITA than in 2025" to remain in effect, although the negative FX developments will increasingly serve as a headwind, albeit somewhat offset by the latest acquisition of Nexo in Brasil.

Estimates down 3-4%

We reduce our Q2e organic growth estimate somewhat in segment North America due to the potential for cautiousness in April-May, while keep all other underlying estimates unchanged. Updating for FX headwinds since our latest update in March and adding the acquisition of Nexo, we find ourselves reducing our sales and EBITA estimates in 2025-27e by 3-4% respectively.

Share at 10.9x 2025e EV/EBITA

On our revised estimates, the share is trading at 10.9x 2025e EV/EBITA, and we estimate 12% EBITA growth in 2025e and a 14% EBITA CAGR between 2024-27e. We continue to expect add-on M&A to boost estimates, as BTS operates in a fragmented market, possesses a net cash balance sheet and maintains a strategy of acquiring smaller consulting and technology companies.